I believe your analysis may be somewhat imperfect, I will endeavor to explain my reasoning. If you see flaws in my reasoning, I encourage you to point them out

I believe your analysis may be somewhat imperfect, I will endeavor to explain my reasoning. If you see flaws in my reasoning, I encourage you to point them out to me so I may sharpen my own logical tools. The way I see it, what you have presented is a narrative. It could be 100% correct, it could be 100% incorrect, and it could be somewhere in between. For the purposes of this exercise, let's assume it is true, or true enough. Once a person holds a narrative such as this in their mind, it subsequently facilitates the ability to make a broad range of very precise predictions, both of the future, and the unknown in general. But don't forget: your mind is producing predictions, but sometimes these predictions have the nasty side effect of not being distinguishable from facts. Fields like psychology, neurology, etc have done significant work studying the particulars of this odd behavior.