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I’ve been wondering the same thing about Massachusetts where I live. We have 416 confirmed cases, 58 requiring hospitalization - it’s unclear how many of those

I’ve been wondering the same thing about Massachusetts where I live. We have 416 confirmed cases, 58 requiring hospitalization - it’s unclear how many of those require the ICU. I know of several people who are suspected of having it but have been told to just self quarantine but haven’t been tested, so obviously the infected numbers are much higher. Still we only had our first death yesterday. He was an 87 year old already in poor health. By this point in Italy, things were already much worse. Is this the beginning of the tsunami, or is it possible that it won’t get as virulent here?

mschuster91 7y ago
> Is this the beginning of the tsunami Yes. The problem with coronavirus is that young people apparently can be asymptomatic and spread the virus around massively, which means that without mass testing they will continue to spread... and then, detection of symptomatic CV patients takes time, both in that the patients go to testing and that the test gets executed. Unlike countries which have done mass testing for weeks/months, for the US, Germany and many others the current infection counts are a momentum in time of about ~1-2 weeks past. Time in which the virus can spread exponentially, something humans are not really good at visualizing. Shit will look grim, especially the deaths, pretty soon. Italy shows the beginnings, and they hit hundreds of deaths a day now.
- tosser0001 7y ago
  Actually Germany is another strange data point: according to Wikipedia’s sources they have 21,890 confirmed cases and “only” 77 deaths. This seems dramatically different than Italy’s experience. Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Is it how they’re counting? The age group infected? Honestly, I’m just trying to find a ray of hope here.
  - mschuster91 7y ago
    > Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Italy has the problem that exploding rents after the financial crisis forced many young people to live with their parents and grandparents which not only means that they're heading for a demographic disaster as it's hard to get kids when grandma lives with you but also that the coronavirus has it easy to spread to elderly patients which are at horrible risk for serious corona cases. Additionally, the financial crisis aftermath has wrecked the Italian healthcare system as it's easy to "save" money there on short term. Hospitals were closed and nurses and doctors fled to e.g. Germany or Switzerland due to higher pay, which means that now when the crisis hits the staff is overwhelmed, the beds are overwhelmed and people, especially old people, are sent home to die so that there is a chance to save those young who do develop severe coronavirus cases.
    - MikeAmelung 7y ago
      It sounds like you've hit on a reason that it might not be as bad for anyone else. Grandma and grandpa are sitting around having dinner with a bunch of asymptomatic but infected young adults. Everybody rubs their faces together when they show up and leave. It's a recipe for disaster.
      - mschuster91 7y ago
        The US has a different problem - people showing up sick (or symptomless but infected) at work because they cannot afford to stay home or lose their job. Germany... let's just say we had to enact strict lockdowns due to utter idiots going to "corona parties" and God I wish I were joking here.
  - ljw1001 7y ago
    germany has a much more accurate infection count than italy. they haven't been overwhelmed yet.

mschuster91 7y ago

> Is this the beginning of the tsunami Yes. The problem with coronavirus is that young people apparently can be asymptomatic and spread the virus around massively, which means that without mass testing they will continue to spread... and then, detection of symptomatic CV patients takes time, both in that the patients go to testing and that the test gets executed. Unlike countries which have done mass testing for weeks/months, for the US, Germany and many others the current infection counts are a momentum in time of about ~1-2 weeks past. Time in which the virus can spread exponentially, something humans are not really good at visualizing. Shit will look grim, especially the deaths, pretty soon. Italy shows the beginnings, and they hit hundreds of deaths a day now.

tosser0001 7y ago
Actually Germany is another strange data point: according to Wikipedia’s sources they have 21,890 confirmed cases and “only” 77 deaths. This seems dramatically different than Italy’s experience. Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Is it how they’re counting? The age group infected? Honestly, I’m just trying to find a ray of hope here.
- mschuster91 7y ago
  > Italy had over 1400 deaths by that point in their confirmed infection count. Italy has the problem that exploding rents after the financial crisis forced many young people to live with their parents and grandparents which not only means that they're heading for a demographic disaster as it's hard to get kids when grandma lives with you but also that the coronavirus has it easy to spread to elderly patients which are at horrible risk for serious corona cases. Additionally, the financial crisis aftermath has wrecked the Italian healthcare system as it's easy to "save" money there on short term. Hospitals were closed and nurses and doctors fled to e.g. Germany or Switzerland due to higher pay, which means that now when the crisis hits the staff is overwhelmed, the beds are overwhelmed and people, especially old people, are sent home to die so that there is a chance to save those young who do develop severe coronavirus cases.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    It sounds like you've hit on a reason that it might not be as bad for anyone else. Grandma and grandpa are sitting around having dinner with a bunch of asymptomatic but infected young adults. Everybody rubs their faces together when they show up and leave. It's a recipe for disaster.
    - mschuster91 7y ago
      The US has a different problem - people showing up sick (or symptomless but infected) at work because they cannot afford to stay home or lose their job. Germany... let's just say we had to enact strict lockdowns due to utter idiots going to "corona parties" and God I wish I were joking here.
- ljw1001 7y ago
  germany has a much more accurate infection count than italy. they haven't been overwhelmed yet.