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The UK considered this until late last week but reversed course over the weekend when new modelling revealed that ICU admission rates in populations they had pr
by Mvandenbergh 7y ago
The UK considered this until late last week but reversed course over the weekend when new modelling revealed that ICU admission rates in populations they had previously assumed were less vulnerable were higher than anticipated if still very small. That would mean completely overwhelming ICU capacity (like more than 20x) for weeks at a time with otherwise healthy young people who would likely survive with ICU care and die without it.
- gridlockd 7y agoThat doesn't mean it's the wrong approach in general, just the wrong approach at this point in time. In the short term, the curve needs to be flattened at (almost) any cost, while treatment and testing capacity ramps up. In the long term, we need to gauge the risk and isolate more selectively. There is no way around herd immunity, we can't shut down almost everything for two years or more.