3 ms·

> even within an order of magnitude of 0.6% Have previous estimates for other diseases been off by that much? A whole order of magnitude, at this level of stud

> even within an order of magnitude of 0.6% Have previous estimates for other diseases been off by that much? A whole order of magnitude, at this level of study? Citations please. Yes, the number is probably not perfectly accurate, but it's also converging toward what is very likely to be a correct figure. Also, how much does it have to change to affect the broader point? A hundred thousand deaths (i.e. one order of magnitude) is still nothing to take lightly. Such aggressive minimization of danger is still a worse problem than the "hysteria" the OP is supposedly trying to address.

guscost 7y ago
In most parts of the world, we have absolutely no idea how far the infection spread from about the end of October to at least February, so we can’t conclusively rule out that kind of error until we can test lots of people for antibodies (this is the only way to confirm a case in a person who has already recovered). It would require the infection to be very contagious, and it probably would require us to have been pretty unlucky with the timing, but as far as I know none of that is contradicted by the available evidence.