5 ms·

Why do we place such low stock in mere fortune? If original cases that penetrated borders were asymptomatic then that merely creates a rare event (i.e. all Ja

Why do we place such low stock in mere fortune? If original cases that penetrated borders were asymptomatic then that merely creates a rare event (i.e. all Japanese risk vectors being clearly symptomatic) and its always plausible for a rare event to happen. Instead we're bending over backwards wondering if its about Japanese bowing/shoe/mask culture.

_6fmb 7y ago
Factually the virus has not accidentally missed Japan. Japan has a substantial number of cases, on par with countries that are entering danger zones, just seems like there is no exponential spreading.
greedo 7y ago
Luck can play a role, but consider the confounding factors against luck: 1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year. 2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0. 3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country. So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Japan is somehow mis-counting patients and deaths (similar to kodokushi). This could also be intentional, in a misguided attempt to protect the economy and the Olympics, or it could simply be a bureaucratic flaw in their methodology. The second is that something unique to how the Japanese culture, healthcare system, etc is giving them an advantage. Once we're on the other side of this pandemic, there's going to be a world of fascinating research/study into how different countries reacted to COVID-19, and how successful they were.
- pdr2020 7y ago
  This is the correct mode of thinking. Rationally consider what conditions could be creating the current scenario, and keep all of them in mind when considering any news/claims that Japan is an outlier. Also agree that COVID-19 will be fertile ground for dissertations in the future.
- taeric 7y ago
  I have been looking at it the other way. That it is not something about Japan making it better. There is something about Italy, Milan specifically, that makes it worse. Point I was able to isolate is air quality. My hypothesis that had borne out rather well, if a place reports high severe cases, they have historically bad air. At the least bad air for the past three months.
  - greedo 7y ago
    China had terrible air quality until they shut everything down, yet their CFR is half of Italy's, and that's probably due to the fact that it started there and the learning curve was steep.
    - taeric 7y ago
      I'll note my hypothesis is exposure. Thought being that the elder in Milan have had years more exposure to the pollution than what I understand to be the more transient working class of China. (Specifically, the area hit.)

_6fmb 7y ago

Factually the virus has not accidentally missed Japan. Japan has a substantial number of cases, on par with countries that are entering danger zones, just seems like there is no exponential spreading.

greedo 7y ago

Luck can play a role, but consider the confounding factors against luck: 1. Travel with China. There was a huge amount of inter-country traffic up until the New Year. 2. Population density. Japan is quite high, and this should increase the country's R0. 3. Population demographics. Over 20% of Japan's population is over 60. This should increase the CFR for the country. So there are two basic scenarios. One is that Japan is somehow mis-counting patients and deaths (similar to kodokushi). This could also be intentional, in a misguided attempt to protect the economy and the Olympics, or it could simply be a bureaucratic flaw in their methodology. The second is that something unique to how the Japanese culture, healthcare system, etc is giving them an advantage. Once we're on the other side of this pandemic, there's going to be a world of fascinating research/study into how different countries reacted to COVID-19, and how successful they were.

pdr2020 7y ago
This is the correct mode of thinking. Rationally consider what conditions could be creating the current scenario, and keep all of them in mind when considering any news/claims that Japan is an outlier. Also agree that COVID-19 will be fertile ground for dissertations in the future.
taeric 7y ago
I have been looking at it the other way. That it is not something about Japan making it better. There is something about Italy, Milan specifically, that makes it worse. Point I was able to isolate is air quality. My hypothesis that had borne out rather well, if a place reports high severe cases, they have historically bad air. At the least bad air for the past three months.
- greedo 7y ago
  China had terrible air quality until they shut everything down, yet their CFR is half of Italy's, and that's probably due to the fact that it started there and the learning curve was steep.
  - taeric 7y ago
    I'll note my hypothesis is exposure. Thought being that the elder in Milan have had years more exposure to the pollution than what I understand to be the more transient working class of China. (Specifically, the area hit.)