7 ms·

I'm wondering how long it will take everyone to be at capacity for toilet paper. I mean I can fill entire rooms with it but then it physically gets in the way.

I'm wondering how long it will take everyone to be at capacity for toilet paper. I mean I can fill entire rooms with it but then it physically gets in the way. There has to be a point of diminishing returns soon.

pmorici 7y ago
Home toilet paper usage has probably legitimately gone way up since people were previously using the company bathroom for half their waking hours and are now instead using their home facilities.
- amiga 7y ago
  Boss gets a dollar, I get a dime, that's why I poop on company time
- jasonv 7y ago
  But office toilet paper supplies should be more available in grocery stores, but I don't see it. Haven't seen TP on a shelf in over a week, and I go to stores three times every two days.
  - pmorici 7y ago
    I saw a photo on twitter where a 7Eleven was selling commercial sized roles of TP that they probably normally used for their public bathroom for a few bucks.
fortran77 7y ago
My friends back in Cupertino and Sunnyvale (I split my year between Tel Aviv and Sunnyvale and now am "stuck" in Tel Aviv) thought everything would calm down, but as soon as deliveries arrive of disinfectant cleaning products and paper products, they are complete bought up. The store managers claim the same number of almost everything is arriving, with a few exceptions like rubbing alcohol (and of course masks!). I have no idea what all these people are doing with them, but there must be houses in Cupertino that are 100% full of lysol and toilet paper.
- nogabebop23 7y ago
  If you look at the shelves they don't exhibit classic shortage issues, as they have big gaps for specific products vs. empty shelves of everything. This (to me) indicates supply coordination vs. actual shortages.
  - dillonmckay 7y ago
    Agreed. I find it interesting to see the products people are leaving on the shelf.
    - ceejayoz 7y ago
      I had a nice chuckle the other day when the cleaning products were wiped out except the "all natural, no chemicals!" stuff.
nogabebop23 7y ago
It also seems crazy for it to be toilet paper in the first place. Its (1) easy to make, (2) mostly produced in-country with no long, integrated supply chain and (3) relatively new (talk to someone over 80 who grew up rural, they probably switched from the sears catalog to toilet paper in their life).
- mokus 7y ago
  Unfortunately we have no Amazon catalog to switch back to.
  - Red_Leaves_Flyy 7y ago
    You don't get tons of junk mail?
    - TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
      Many people have an ad blocker installed on the mail box.
- Obsnold 7y ago
  My wife suspects it started in Hong Kong. People started buying all the toilet paper so they could make masks from them. Then people in other countries saw on the news that toilet paper was running out in Hong Kong so they started panic buying as well.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  It happens in every crisis, across every culture, and has been happening for decades. One hypothesis is it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. The other is it's the defence of an intimate space. Either way, it’s older than this crisis.
analog31 7y ago
The folks in Green Bay say they're busy making more. That's the difference between toilet paper and money. If you run out of toilet paper, you can print more. ... oh, wait. ;-) But seriously, I think there is probably no fundamental shortage of the ability to make more TP. When you drive through northern Wisconsin, you will see huge stacks of wood all over the place.
- HarryHirsch 7y ago
  I think there is probably no fundamental shortage of the ability to make more TP No one is going to build a whole new paper mill to cover for a 100-year event. TP is about the best example for inelastic supply and inelastic demand.
  - downerending 7y ago
    Probably, but as you say, once everyone has a month or two's supply in their closet, they'll stop buying no matter what.
    - beatgammit 7y ago
      In my area, that's closer to 6 months supply. I went to Costco right after the coronavirus data hit the mainstream news and before Costco put limits on basic items like TP, and a lot of people were buying 2 packages of TP. In fact, one of the Costco stores had to close because of a fight over TP. Each package at Costco has 36 rolls, so if you use 1 roll/week, that's well over a year's supply. For my family of 4, a 36-pack lasts >6 months (probably closer to a year, I haven't bothered to calculate it), and we picked some up about 2-3 months ago, so we didn't bother buying more. That's why it's so weird to me that people are buying so much. How long do people expect this to last? I'm guessing it'll be resolved within a couple months in most places, so what's the point in buying >6 months worth of TP? Honestly, I think everyone with means should have 1-2 months of basic necessities on hand in case of emergencies (job loss, natural disaster, etc), especially for shelf-stable stuff like TP and soap. However, the time to stock up isn't when an emergency happens, but after an emergency happens (presumably your stock is a bit low).
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
Here's my and my partner's back-of-the-napkin calculation of maximum toilet paper hoarding capacity for what should be an average-ish person living in a two-bedroom house and buying six-packs of toilet rolls. Suppose a two-bedroom house has 200m² surface with the ceiling at 4m. And let's assume that it's possible to squeeze 25 six-packs of toilet paper in 1m³. That's a capacity of 20,000 six-packs (800 m³ house volume times 25 rolls per m³). Assuming of course the person is willing to stuff every last cm³ of their house with toilet paper maximising storage efficiency, which means throwing out all the furniture and living in their car, not to mention not being able to go to the toilet in the house, in the first place. It's definitely doable. 20,000 six-packs per person, no problem. I'm afraid it's going to take a while before people are at capacity. Edit: of course, when I say "back-of-the-napkin", it's just a turn of phrase. We ain't got no napkins.
- TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
  Surely people will run out of money / credit before they buy 800m³ of toilet paper.
  - YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
    Perhaps. Alternatively, toilet paper will replace money so people will receive it in place of wages, payments etc. In that case, stuffing one's house full of toilet paper will be similar to stashing one's banknotes under one's bed etc. In that scenario, money would acquire the same value that toilet paper used to have before the virus. So toilet paper would be the new money and money the new toilet paper.

pmorici 7y ago

Home toilet paper usage has probably legitimately gone way up since people were previously using the company bathroom for half their waking hours and are now instead using their home facilities.

amiga 7y ago
Boss gets a dollar, I get a dime, that's why I poop on company time
jasonv 7y ago
But office toilet paper supplies should be more available in grocery stores, but I don't see it. Haven't seen TP on a shelf in over a week, and I go to stores three times every two days.
- pmorici 7y ago
  I saw a photo on twitter where a 7Eleven was selling commercial sized roles of TP that they probably normally used for their public bathroom for a few bucks.

fortran77 7y ago

My friends back in Cupertino and Sunnyvale (I split my year between Tel Aviv and Sunnyvale and now am "stuck" in Tel Aviv) thought everything would calm down, but as soon as deliveries arrive of disinfectant cleaning products and paper products, they are complete bought up. The store managers claim the same number of almost everything is arriving, with a few exceptions like rubbing alcohol (and of course masks!). I have no idea what all these people are doing with them, but there must be houses in Cupertino that are 100% full of lysol and toilet paper.

nogabebop23 7y ago
If you look at the shelves they don't exhibit classic shortage issues, as they have big gaps for specific products vs. empty shelves of everything. This (to me) indicates supply coordination vs. actual shortages.
- dillonmckay 7y ago
  Agreed. I find it interesting to see the products people are leaving on the shelf.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    I had a nice chuckle the other day when the cleaning products were wiped out except the "all natural, no chemicals!" stuff.

nogabebop23 7y ago

It also seems crazy for it to be toilet paper in the first place. Its (1) easy to make, (2) mostly produced in-country with no long, integrated supply chain and (3) relatively new (talk to someone over 80 who grew up rural, they probably switched from the sears catalog to toilet paper in their life).

mokus 7y ago
Unfortunately we have no Amazon catalog to switch back to.
- Red_Leaves_Flyy 7y ago
  You don't get tons of junk mail?
  - TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
    Many people have an ad blocker installed on the mail box.
Obsnold 7y ago
My wife suspects it started in Hong Kong. People started buying all the toilet paper so they could make masks from them. Then people in other countries saw on the news that toilet paper was running out in Hong Kong so they started panic buying as well.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
JumpCrisscross 7y ago
It happens in every crisis, across every culture, and has been happening for decades. One hypothesis is it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy. The other is it's the defence of an intimate space. Either way, it’s older than this crisis.

analog31 7y ago

The folks in Green Bay say they're busy making more. That's the difference between toilet paper and money. If you run out of toilet paper, you can print more. ... oh, wait. ;-) But seriously, I think there is probably no fundamental shortage of the ability to make more TP. When you drive through northern Wisconsin, you will see huge stacks of wood all over the place.

HarryHirsch 7y ago
I think there is probably no fundamental shortage of the ability to make more TP No one is going to build a whole new paper mill to cover for a 100-year event. TP is about the best example for inelastic supply and inelastic demand.
- downerending 7y ago
  Probably, but as you say, once everyone has a month or two's supply in their closet, they'll stop buying no matter what.
  - beatgammit 7y ago
    In my area, that's closer to 6 months supply. I went to Costco right after the coronavirus data hit the mainstream news and before Costco put limits on basic items like TP, and a lot of people were buying 2 packages of TP. In fact, one of the Costco stores had to close because of a fight over TP. Each package at Costco has 36 rolls, so if you use 1 roll/week, that's well over a year's supply. For my family of 4, a 36-pack lasts >6 months (probably closer to a year, I haven't bothered to calculate it), and we picked some up about 2-3 months ago, so we didn't bother buying more. That's why it's so weird to me that people are buying so much. How long do people expect this to last? I'm guessing it'll be resolved within a couple months in most places, so what's the point in buying >6 months worth of TP? Honestly, I think everyone with means should have 1-2 months of basic necessities on hand in case of emergencies (job loss, natural disaster, etc), especially for shelf-stable stuff like TP and soap. However, the time to stock up isn't when an emergency happens, but after an emergency happens (presumably your stock is a bit low).

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago

Here's my and my partner's back-of-the-napkin calculation of maximum toilet paper hoarding capacity for what should be an average-ish person living in a two-bedroom house and buying six-packs of toilet rolls. Suppose a two-bedroom house has 200m² surface with the ceiling at 4m. And let's assume that it's possible to squeeze 25 six-packs of toilet paper in 1m³. That's a capacity of 20,000 six-packs (800 m³ house volume times 25 rolls per m³). Assuming of course the person is willing to stuff every last cm³ of their house with toilet paper maximising storage efficiency, which means throwing out all the furniture and living in their car, not to mention not being able to go to the toilet in the house, in the first place. It's definitely doable. 20,000 six-packs per person, no problem. I'm afraid it's going to take a while before people are at capacity. Edit: of course, when I say "back-of-the-napkin", it's just a turn of phrase. We ain't got no napkins.

TheSpiceIsLife 7y ago
Surely people will run out of money / credit before they buy 800m³ of toilet paper.
- YeGoblynQueenne 7y ago
  Perhaps. Alternatively, toilet paper will replace money so people will receive it in place of wages, payments etc. In that case, stuffing one's house full of toilet paper will be similar to stashing one's banknotes under one's bed etc. In that scenario, money would acquire the same value that toilet paper used to have before the virus. So toilet paper would be the new money and money the new toilet paper.