4 ms·

Spacex is going to crush all of it’s competitors. It get’s the launches for the cost of a tank of kerosine and lox. It’s manufacturing its own satellites. Thes

Spacex is going to crush all of it’s competitors. It get’s the launches for the cost of a tank of kerosine and lox. It’s manufacturing its own satellites. These are cost advantages that no one else can match. Once Starlink is operating, the first customer to knock on their door will be the US military. They will spend any amount to get world wide internet/ip availability. Softbank’s only hope to rescue their investment is to merge OneWeb with another satellite player. One advantage Starlink has is that the satellites have a fixed lifetime and need to be refreshed. Future generations of satellites can have additional capability added (ADS-B tracking for aircraft, for example) But in the end, there can only be one.

herio 7y ago
USAF is already testing starlink and has been for quite some time. They have a $28m three year contract running since 2018. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/11/spacex-starlink-28-million-air-force-contract-has-delivered-610-mbps-to-military-plane.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/11/spacex-starlink-28-mil...
InTheArena 7y ago
I don’t think it’s a given that SpaceX and Tesla necessarily have the cash to ride out this crisis. Castles in the middle of two major capital projects and two smaller ones, spaceX is in the middle of two capital intensive projects. Their odds are much better than any other competitor right now, but they’re still at the whims of the market.
- toomuchtodo 7y ago
  They’ll get a bailout if necessary. From China, most assuredly, from the US maybe a bit less so.
valuearb 7y ago
The “advantage” of that fixed lifetime also leads to higher operational costs since they have to be replaced so often. Also their launch costs are far more than just kerosene, every launch destroys a second stage, and the last a first stage.
- jmcguckin 7y ago
  SpaceX is using first stages that have already flown - that someone else already paid full price for. Kerosine, lox, fairings and a second stage are a lot cheaper than launching from a comepletely new rocket. Now the hat trick will be if SpaceX can piggyback starlink sats on regular customer launches...
  - valuearb 7y ago
    Fuel is super cheap, only a few hundred thousand for each Falcon launch and a full Starship/Superheavy stack launch is estimated at only a half million. But it's going to be many decades before launch costs come down close to fuel costs. Right now it's been estimated that SpaceX's launch cost of new Falcon 9 is around $45M, and their cost for launching a re-used Falcon is around $25M, a far cry from the $200k cost of Kerosene & LOX. Re-use is great, but they are still in the early stages. Their goal for Falcon was ten launches per first stage, but they just lost their first attempt at a 5th first stage launch (albeit after it successfully put it's cargo in orbit), after suffering several major anomalies with it's engines. Falcon first stage re-use takes over a month because there is still some re-furbishment and re-testing, and that costs money too. The second stage and fairings also cost around $15M together, and they are destroyed every launch (though they keep attempting fairing recoveries, they haven't been very successful at). SpaceX won't be able to significantly lower launch costs until Starship is successfully completed. Starship gives you have a system designed for up to 100 re-uses, and a re-usable second stage without a fairing. At that point they might be able to lower launch costs to the $10M range, but it's going to be hard to get much lower. There are still a ton of people involved in every launch, and those people need to get paid.

herio 7y ago

USAF is already testing starlink and has been for quite some time. They have a $28m three year contract running since 2018. https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/11/spacex-starlink-28-million-air-force-contract-has-delivered-610-mbps-to-military-plane.html https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2019/11/spacex-starlink-28-mil...

InTheArena 7y ago

I don’t think it’s a given that SpaceX and Tesla necessarily have the cash to ride out this crisis. Castles in the middle of two major capital projects and two smaller ones, spaceX is in the middle of two capital intensive projects. Their odds are much better than any other competitor right now, but they’re still at the whims of the market.

toomuchtodo 7y ago
They’ll get a bailout if necessary. From China, most assuredly, from the US maybe a bit less so.

valuearb 7y ago

The “advantage” of that fixed lifetime also leads to higher operational costs since they have to be replaced so often. Also their launch costs are far more than just kerosene, every launch destroys a second stage, and the last a first stage.

jmcguckin 7y ago
SpaceX is using first stages that have already flown - that someone else already paid full price for. Kerosine, lox, fairings and a second stage are a lot cheaper than launching from a comepletely new rocket. Now the hat trick will be if SpaceX can piggyback starlink sats on regular customer launches...
- valuearb 7y ago
  Fuel is super cheap, only a few hundred thousand for each Falcon launch and a full Starship/Superheavy stack launch is estimated at only a half million. But it's going to be many decades before launch costs come down close to fuel costs. Right now it's been estimated that SpaceX's launch cost of new Falcon 9 is around $45M, and their cost for launching a re-used Falcon is around $25M, a far cry from the $200k cost of Kerosene & LOX. Re-use is great, but they are still in the early stages. Their goal for Falcon was ten launches per first stage, but they just lost their first attempt at a 5th first stage launch (albeit after it successfully put it's cargo in orbit), after suffering several major anomalies with it's engines. Falcon first stage re-use takes over a month because there is still some re-furbishment and re-testing, and that costs money too. The second stage and fairings also cost around $15M together, and they are destroyed every launch (though they keep attempting fairing recoveries, they haven't been very successful at). SpaceX won't be able to significantly lower launch costs until Starship is successfully completed. Starship gives you have a system designed for up to 100 re-uses, and a re-usable second stage without a fairing. At that point they might be able to lower launch costs to the $10M range, but it's going to be hard to get much lower. There are still a ton of people involved in every launch, and those people need to get paid.