2 ms·
Merkel publicly estimated 40-70% of the population of Germany would catch Corona this year. Let's assume that holds true for the US. The most reliable public
by Consultant32452 7y ago
Merkel publicly estimated 40-70% of the population of Germany would catch Corona this year. Let's assume that holds true for the US. The most reliable public numbers so far suggest 1-3% death rate. Let's assume that holds true in the US also.
US population is 330 million. The lower bound of the estimates above (40% catch, 1% of those die) is 1.32 million people die. The upper bound (70% catch, 3% of those die) is 6.9 million people die.
Just to put the above numbers into perspective. A fairly normal number of deaths in the US without Corona is 2.6 Million from all causes. We're looking at potentially more than tripling the number of people who die this year.
I don't care to get into the debate any deeper than that, just want to make sure we all understand the stakes.
edit: corrected doubling to tripling
- tmountain 7y agoWith your upper bound estimate it would be a 360% increase if you included the 2.6M from all causes.