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How widespread is widespread? Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan… these are countries in which people wear masks in large numbers on a normal day. Th
by brigandish 7y ago
How widespread is widespread? Japan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan… these are countries in which people wear masks in large numbers on a normal day.
They all still have an R0 above 1.
- harikb 7y agoThose countries also have higher population densities and public transport usage than some of the western countries. How can you say the mask isn’t helping?
- brigandish 7y ago> How can you say the mask isn’t helping? I didn't but I also didn't make the claim that they would help so I suggest we start by getting claimants to back up their claims before we get anyone checking claims to prove negatives.
- fspeech 7y agoWe need universal mask wearing AND unlimited testing. South Korea showed it works. In Japan, even without widespread testing the spreading is still slower than the west. It's true Singapore does not mandate mask use, but they have thorough contact tracing and draconian quarantine laws.
- octbash 7y agoExcuse me - what "draconian quarantine laws"?
- fspeech 7y agoYou could lose your residency right for violating quarantine. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid19-coronavirus-pr-stay-home-notice-barred-12471954 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid19-coron... https://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-countries-wield-fines-jail-terms-to-stop-coronavirus-quarantine-violations-11582824849 https://www.wsj.com/articles/asian-countries-wield-fines-jai...
- svara 7y agoThey also happen to be the countries that have the most control over the epidemic. https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth https://studylib.net/coronavirus-growth
- taeric 7y agoDoes Japan? Last I saw, they had an inexplicably low curve. Despite not really testing or doing other measures.
- sacred_numbers 7y agoI think the reason it's inexplicably low is that they haven't really been testing.
- javagram 7y agoConsidering the physical proximity of Japan and China (30% of tourists to Japan are Chinese) the fact that Japanese hospitals haven’t been overwhelmed like Italy suggests the virus is not spreading as rapidly there. (Testing may also be a concern but lack of testing cannot hide overwhelmed hospitals).
- taeric 7y agoBut why? I have pushed my air quality hypothesis. What other reasons are there. And you can't just claim social distancing. Unless they have shut down their trains, where people are literally packed in, that just doesn't fly. (So, have they?)
- MikeAmelung 7y agoCouple of possibilities I've been thinking about: The virus has been in Italy for a lot longer than they think, and they get close to each other/have actual contact a lot (I don't know if that's actually true, I've never been to Italy) Maybe they mostly have a particular mutation that is more deadly/infectious
- brigandish 7y agoDon't discount the possibility that figures are being massaged in various ways. One is the obvious lack of widespread testing. Another is the reports of people with symptoms being turned away. Then there are the kodokushi[0] numbers which are a clue to how the government already deals with uncomfortable mortality figures - let alone those kudokushi who may die because of the virus - and a over a million deaths a year (I don't know the monthly totals) in which to hide a few hundred (initially) deaths, especially while still in flu season. In short, I trust the figures here about one step more than ones coming out of China. [0] https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-aging-japan-thousands-die-alone-and-unnoticed-every-year-their-bodies-often-go-unnoticed-for-weeks.html https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2015/06/kodokushi-in-agi...
- Der_Einzige 7y agoUhh, show me evidence that China's official numbers and South Korea have r0 above 1 please. It looks like it's finally under 1 right now...