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I think this is underrated. This thing must have been spreading since November here. I know a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and

I think this is underrated. This thing must have been spreading since November here. I know a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and a bad fever, went to the hospital for awhile and tests were negative for flu, etc. doctors just didn’t know what it was. The person has COPD however. But anecdotally I’ve noticed quite a few more colleagues over the last few months out sick “with the flu or something”. No idea. They’re still only testing people with symptoms. We need a randomizes test and a test for antibodies to have any idea how much it has already spread. If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Many probably with very mild symptoms. I could just be in denial right now as well.

acqq 7y ago
> If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Because all the effects are limited by the time it takes for them to happen. We know the speed of growth, it's much faster than the expected recovery times. From all known COVID-19 cases the number of recovered are still dominated by the recovered in China. China: reported cases: 81,008 dead: 3,255 recovered: 71,740 Whole world: reported cases: 282,395 dead: 11,822 recovered: 93,189 Virus causing COVID-19 is "novel" meaning not existing among humans at all until a few months ago.
gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
You are in denial.
fma 7y ago
If you haven't heard about the Seattle Flu Study - this is a great read. Coronavirus was in Seattle before officials confirmed it. The federal government also prevented the researchers from doing more testing, delaying valuable time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...
magicsmoke 7y ago
If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients. The first infection in China was traced back to November and they were building hospitals by early February. The only places I've seen the first US infection being dated that early are conspiracies on Chinese social media that claim the origin of COVID19 to be the US instead of Wuhan. The only way that theory works is to date the first infection in the US and claim that Americans bought it into China during the Wuhan Military games. That theory is easy enough to debunk with common sense because if the US had COVID first the hospitals would be completed overwhelmed before China's was, but it's not the first time wishful thinking's buried common sense in Chinese history.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  You’d think mild cases wouldn’t have the same viral load as the severe cases. Even if you’re technology contagious it may be less for the mild cases. Especially asymtomatic. You’d not be coughing or sneezing more than usual which must have some effect. Just a thought. No one seems to have mentioned this idea.
  - mynegation 7y ago
    What is this idea exactly? That the virus rolled through Seattle and other areas with just a bunch of relatively mild cases and without a critical uptick in hospital load? I am not an epidemiologist but that does not seem realistic.
- irq11 7y ago
  ”If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients.” Or the fatality and hospitalization rates have been overestimated due to severity bias. We know this to be true, actually. We just don’t have good estimates of what the true rates are. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to find out the virus is already widespread, and only slightly more dangerous than influenza. Even in Italy, if there is widespread infection, the ~4k dead would reflect a low mortality rate.
devmunchies 7y ago
> a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and a bad fever, went to the hospital for awhile and tests were negative for flu That’s exactly what happened to my dad in February.
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
  Yes it was the case for many people in February. They didn't have covid. Your dad is very high risk and should stay home. The doctors in UK don't need a test to diagnose covid in a patient with pneumonia. They see it in a second on an xray because it is so distinct. The Chinese doctors said the same. So do the Italians.
mrfusion 7y ago
Seems like everyone I talk to either had something like that or knows people who did. It could be a huge effect.

acqq 7y ago

> If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Because all the effects are limited by the time it takes for them to happen. We know the speed of growth, it's much faster than the expected recovery times. From all known COVID-19 cases the number of recovered are still dominated by the recovered in China. China: reported cases: 81,008 dead: 3,255 recovered: 71,740 Whole world: reported cases: 282,395 dead: 11,822 recovered: 93,189 Virus causing COVID-19 is "novel" meaning not existing among humans at all until a few months ago.

gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago

You are in denial.

fma 7y ago

If you haven't heard about the Seattle Flu Study - this is a great read. Coronavirus was in Seattle before officials confirmed it. The federal government also prevented the researchers from doing more testing, delaying valuable time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...

magicsmoke 7y ago

If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients. The first infection in China was traced back to November and they were building hospitals by early February. The only places I've seen the first US infection being dated that early are conspiracies on Chinese social media that claim the origin of COVID19 to be the US instead of Wuhan. The only way that theory works is to date the first infection in the US and claim that Americans bought it into China during the Wuhan Military games. That theory is easy enough to debunk with common sense because if the US had COVID first the hospitals would be completed overwhelmed before China's was, but it's not the first time wishful thinking's buried common sense in Chinese history.

mrfusion 7y ago
You’d think mild cases wouldn’t have the same viral load as the severe cases. Even if you’re technology contagious it may be less for the mild cases. Especially asymtomatic. You’d not be coughing or sneezing more than usual which must have some effect. Just a thought. No one seems to have mentioned this idea.
- mynegation 7y ago
  What is this idea exactly? That the virus rolled through Seattle and other areas with just a bunch of relatively mild cases and without a critical uptick in hospital load? I am not an epidemiologist but that does not seem realistic.
irq11 7y ago
”If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients.” Or the fatality and hospitalization rates have been overestimated due to severity bias. We know this to be true, actually. We just don’t have good estimates of what the true rates are. It wouldn’t be shocking at all to find out the virus is already widespread, and only slightly more dangerous than influenza. Even in Italy, if there is widespread infection, the ~4k dead would reflect a low mortality rate.

devmunchies 7y ago

> a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and a bad fever, went to the hospital for awhile and tests were negative for flu That’s exactly what happened to my dad in February.

gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
Yes it was the case for many people in February. They didn't have covid. Your dad is very high risk and should stay home. The doctors in UK don't need a test to diagnose covid in a patient with pneumonia. They see it in a second on an xray because it is so distinct. The Chinese doctors said the same. So do the Italians.

mrfusion 7y ago

Seems like everyone I talk to either had something like that or knows people who did. It could be a huge effect.