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That’s true only when hospitals are functioning. Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10%, from the virus itself as well as othe

That’s true only when hospitals are functioning. Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10%, from the virus itself as well as other unrelated causes which get no ICU treatment.

logicchains 7y ago
>Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10% Some evidence of this? Hospitals were completely overrun in Wuhan initially, but the mortality rate didn't get anywhere near 10%.
- flyinglizard 7y ago
  Italy: 47000 cases, 4000 deaths. This does not include the collapse of the ICU system, meaning people with stroke, heart attacks and other life threatening conditions do not get optimal (or any) treatment. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ I’ll respectfully disregard Wuhan numbers - no one knows for sure what’s the count other than the Chinese government.
yotamoron 7y ago
Hospitals are saturated, because people are panicking. For almost all people, just staying at home for a few days is enough.
- DanBC 7y ago
  You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients/7027189.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
  - yotamoron 7y ago
    Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
    - greedo 7y ago
      So now Italy's pandemic has gone from "horrible" to "reasonable?" It's CFR is increasing, not decreasing. The number of cases is increasing exponentially, not flattening, and the death rate in human terms is approaching 1K per day. I don't know what world you live in, but here in reality, this is horrible.
      - yotamoron 7y ago
        Just as a side note, Italy had almost 50k death in 2015 - from respiratory diseases alonr. No one was crying 'Pandemic!!' when that happened. Adjusted to population size, this is 4 times mord then here in Israel. Italy has 21% smokers rate, many many of them are old. These data (and more) is unique to Italy, and the reason why corona is so deadly THERE. And in any case - what would be the death rate and for how long if the entire world implements alengthy lockdown?
      - yotamoron 7y ago
        In the US, 1 person dies of cardiovascular disease every 37 seconds. Since no body cries in the media 'Pandemic!!' (although it is a very real one), I guess that its not the total number of deaths per day that is shocking, its the exponential growth. The growth is indeed exponential, there is no doubt about that, but what is its potential? Judging from the data we now have from Italy and the rest of the world, it has a very small overall potential - the very old and very sick (obviously we have to take care of them, but a global hysteria??). What is the equivalent? Say you started a new web service, that is wonderful and very attractive and cost effective and what-have-you - but only for people who's name start with the letter K. The media is exploding with compliments, subscriptions are going through the roof, all the celebs who's name start with the letter K subscribe and praise etc etc, and you indeed get an exponential growth - for just a few days. Then the source dries up. No new subscribers. All the potential market is exhausted. You end up with a few million subscribers - and no more growth what-so-ever, exponential or linear.

logicchains 7y ago

>Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10% Some evidence of this? Hospitals were completely overrun in Wuhan initially, but the mortality rate didn't get anywhere near 10%.

flyinglizard 7y ago
Italy: 47000 cases, 4000 deaths. This does not include the collapse of the ICU system, meaning people with stroke, heart attacks and other life threatening conditions do not get optimal (or any) treatment. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ I’ll respectfully disregard Wuhan numbers - no one knows for sure what’s the count other than the Chinese government.

yotamoron 7y ago

Hospitals are saturated, because people are panicking. For almost all people, just staying at home for a few days is enough.

DanBC 7y ago
You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients/7027189.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
- yotamoron 7y ago
  Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
  - greedo 7y ago
    So now Italy's pandemic has gone from "horrible" to "reasonable?" It's CFR is increasing, not decreasing. The number of cases is increasing exponentially, not flattening, and the death rate in human terms is approaching 1K per day. I don't know what world you live in, but here in reality, this is horrible.
    - yotamoron 7y ago
      Just as a side note, Italy had almost 50k death in 2015 - from respiratory diseases alonr. No one was crying 'Pandemic!!' when that happened. Adjusted to population size, this is 4 times mord then here in Israel. Italy has 21% smokers rate, many many of them are old. These data (and more) is unique to Italy, and the reason why corona is so deadly THERE. And in any case - what would be the death rate and for how long if the entire world implements alengthy lockdown?
    - yotamoron 7y ago
      In the US, 1 person dies of cardiovascular disease every 37 seconds. Since no body cries in the media 'Pandemic!!' (although it is a very real one), I guess that its not the total number of deaths per day that is shocking, its the exponential growth. The growth is indeed exponential, there is no doubt about that, but what is its potential? Judging from the data we now have from Italy and the rest of the world, it has a very small overall potential - the very old and very sick (obviously we have to take care of them, but a global hysteria??). What is the equivalent? Say you started a new web service, that is wonderful and very attractive and cost effective and what-have-you - but only for people who's name start with the letter K. The media is exploding with compliments, subscriptions are going through the roof, all the celebs who's name start with the letter K subscribe and praise etc etc, and you indeed get an exponential growth - for just a few days. Then the source dries up. No new subscribers. All the potential market is exhausted. You end up with a few million subscribers - and no more growth what-so-ever, exponential or linear.