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Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average

Corona is killing a negligible % of the population, mostly very old and very sick people (checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary - average age of dead patiences is 79.5 years, all of them with severe background illness, in a part of the country where 29% of the population is at least 60 yeard old. Those are the facts.). If anyting, what we are experiencing is not a corona pandemic but a massive, global hysteria pandemic - much more dangerous.

DanBC 7y ago
> all of them with severe background illness, Diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity: these aren't what people think of as "severe background illness", but all of these seriously increase risk.
- yotamoron 7y ago
  When you are 80 years old - those are serious medical conditions.
flyinglizard 7y ago
That’s true only when hospitals are functioning. Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10%, from the virus itself as well as other unrelated causes which get no ICU treatment.
- logicchains 7y ago
  >Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10% Some evidence of this? Hospitals were completely overrun in Wuhan initially, but the mortality rate didn't get anywhere near 10%.
  - flyinglizard 7y ago
    Italy: 47000 cases, 4000 deaths. This does not include the collapse of the ICU system, meaning people with stroke, heart attacks and other life threatening conditions do not get optimal (or any) treatment. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ I’ll respectfully disregard Wuhan numbers - no one knows for sure what’s the count other than the Chinese government.
- yotamoron 7y ago
  Hospitals are saturated, because people are panicking. For almost all people, just staying at home for a few days is enough.
  - DanBC 7y ago
    You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients/7027189.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
    - yotamoron 7y ago
      Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
      - greedo 7y ago
        So now Italy's pandemic has gone from "horrible" to "reasonable?" It's CFR is increasing, not decreasing. The number of cases is increasing exponentially, not flattening, and the death rate in human terms is approaching 1K per day. I don't know what world you live in, but here in reality, this is horrible.
        yotamoron 7y ago
        Just as a side note, Italy had almost 50k death in 2015 - from respiratory diseases alonr. No one was crying 'Pandemic!!' when that happened. Adjusted to population size, this is 4 times mord then here in Israel. Italy has 21% smokers rate, many many of them are old. These data (and more) is unique to Italy, and the reason why corona is so deadly THERE. And in any case - what would be the death rate and for how long if the entire world implements alengthy lockdown?
throwaway_pdp09 7y ago
> checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary Post link plz
- grouff 7y ago
  Here is something from somewhere from yesterday https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_20marzo%20ITA.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infograf...
- yotamoron 7y ago
  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
- drited 7y ago
  Not the op and I don't know where the age data is but for the regional data on confirmed cases, tests and deaths, iterate the "24" in this URL up by 2 each day at 6pm Italy time to see them. Alternatively go to the main domain and go to the 'news and media' section http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_24_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_24_file.p...
monkeynotes 7y ago
You can't argue with the fact that hospitals can't take the pressure even at negligible death rate. Hospitals fucked = lots of other people are screwed as they depend on unrelated treatments. Heath system going out has huge cascading problems for society.
- logicchains 7y ago
  >Heath system going out has huge cascading problems for society. Worse than the huge cascading problems caused by making a double digit percentage of the population unemployed indefinitely?
  - ethbro 7y ago
    Well, there are a bit north of 1.2M Americans who die of heart disease or cancer every year. That's deaths. With a functioning, advanced health care system. Those numbers don't get better without that.
    - logicchains 7y ago
      In America at least, the functioning, advanced health care system is a barely accessible to people who are unemployed, and the government doesn't look like it's going to do anything to change that soon.
      - ethbro 7y ago
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_and_Active_Labor_Act https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_...
        logicchains 7y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_debt#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_debt#United_States "Studies have found people are most likely to accumulate large medical debts when they do not have health insurance to cover the costs of necessary medications, treatments, or procedures" In most cases, no job = no health insurance
maxerickson 7y ago
It's killing whole percentage points of the identified infections. If 1 billion people get infected, that's 10 or 20 million people (or more). And so on with larger numbers of infected. That's not 'negligible'.
- logicchains 7y ago
  But how many of those people would have died anyway? Somebody over 80 has around a 10% chance of dying every year. Somebody over 80 with Corona has a 20% chance of dying, so the risk of dying is doubled.
  - thechao 7y ago
    You’re conflating all-causes death with novel death. It takes the expected death rate of the cohort from 10% to (given full penetration) 30%.
  - yotamoron 7y ago
    This is an excellent point. I'm from Israel, and yesterday it was announced that the first corona victim has died. The poor guy was 88 years old, suffered from multiple background illnesses - and suffered a heart attack a few days before he died - it so happens that in addition to all of the above he had corona. Now, honestly - is this REALLY a corona victim? Now check the data from Italy - most deaths were like that, and most of them could have equally died from the flu/common cold/brain stroke/just being old. How far and deep will this madness go?
    - bsaul 7y ago
      i don't understand why you got downvoted. We don't consider someone dying from a cold if he's 80yo with heart attack. We're introducing a novel way of counting casualities, and this is problematic whenever we want to account for the severity of the virus. Now on the other side, hospitals usually aren't flooded the way they are at the moment, or at least that's my impression. So there is definitely something special about the epidemic (although we don't know why : maybe it's just extremely contagious, and makes everybody become sick about the same time, instead of a natural spread for the flu ?)

DanBC 7y ago

> all of them with severe background illness, Diabetes, high blood pressure, obesity: these aren't what people think of as "severe background illness", but all of these seriously increase risk.

yotamoron 7y ago
When you are 80 years old - those are serious medical conditions.

flyinglizard 7y ago

That’s true only when hospitals are functioning. Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10%, from the virus itself as well as other unrelated causes which get no ICU treatment.

logicchains 7y ago
>Corona spread saturates hospitals and then mortality goes up to near 10% Some evidence of this? Hospitals were completely overrun in Wuhan initially, but the mortality rate didn't get anywhere near 10%.
- flyinglizard 7y ago
  Italy: 47000 cases, 4000 deaths. This does not include the collapse of the ICU system, meaning people with stroke, heart attacks and other life threatening conditions do not get optimal (or any) treatment. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ I’ll respectfully disregard Wuhan numbers - no one knows for sure what’s the count other than the Chinese government.
yotamoron 7y ago
Hospitals are saturated, because people are panicking. For almost all people, just staying at home for a few days is enough.
- DanBC 7y ago
  You don't get admitted to ICU because you're panicking. You get admitted to ICU because multiple doctors think you need to be there. London hospitals have started to become overwhelmed with patients, and this is only going to get worse. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-overwhelmed-by-coronavirus-patients/7027189.article https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/hospitals-critical-care-unit-over...
  - yotamoron 7y ago
    Maybe, maybe not. Until we get the hard data regarding what is happening in London, we can't say anything definite. Look at Italy - it was a horrible pandemic - until we got the data, which made it much more reasonable.
    - greedo 7y ago
      So now Italy's pandemic has gone from "horrible" to "reasonable?" It's CFR is increasing, not decreasing. The number of cases is increasing exponentially, not flattening, and the death rate in human terms is approaching 1K per day. I don't know what world you live in, but here in reality, this is horrible.
      - yotamoron 7y ago
        Just as a side note, Italy had almost 50k death in 2015 - from respiratory diseases alonr. No one was crying 'Pandemic!!' when that happened. Adjusted to population size, this is 4 times mord then here in Israel. Italy has 21% smokers rate, many many of them are old. These data (and more) is unique to Italy, and the reason why corona is so deadly THERE. And in any case - what would be the death rate and for how long if the entire world implements alengthy lockdown?

throwaway_pdp09 7y ago

> checkout the official data from the Italian health ministary Post link plz

grouff 7y ago
Here is something from somewhere from yesterday https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_20marzo%20ITA.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infograf...
yotamoron 7y ago
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-tho...
drited 7y ago
Not the op and I don't know where the age data is but for the regional data on confirmed cases, tests and deaths, iterate the "24" in this URL up by 2 each day at 6pm Italy time to see them. Alternatively go to the main domain and go to the 'news and media' section http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_24_file.pdf http://www.salute.gov.it/imgs/C_17_pagineAree_5351_24_file.p...

monkeynotes 7y ago

You can't argue with the fact that hospitals can't take the pressure even at negligible death rate. Hospitals fucked = lots of other people are screwed as they depend on unrelated treatments. Heath system going out has huge cascading problems for society.

logicchains 7y ago
>Heath system going out has huge cascading problems for society. Worse than the huge cascading problems caused by making a double digit percentage of the population unemployed indefinitely?
- ethbro 7y ago
  Well, there are a bit north of 1.2M Americans who die of heart disease or cancer every year. That's deaths. With a functioning, advanced health care system. Those numbers don't get better without that.
  - logicchains 7y ago
    In America at least, the functioning, advanced health care system is a barely accessible to people who are unemployed, and the government doesn't look like it's going to do anything to change that soon.
    - ethbro 7y ago
      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_and_Active_Labor_Act https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emergency_Medical_Treatment_...
      - logicchains 7y ago
        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_debt#United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_debt#United_States "Studies have found people are most likely to accumulate large medical debts when they do not have health insurance to cover the costs of necessary medications, treatments, or procedures" In most cases, no job = no health insurance

maxerickson 7y ago

It's killing whole percentage points of the identified infections. If 1 billion people get infected, that's 10 or 20 million people (or more). And so on with larger numbers of infected. That's not 'negligible'.

logicchains 7y ago
But how many of those people would have died anyway? Somebody over 80 has around a 10% chance of dying every year. Somebody over 80 with Corona has a 20% chance of dying, so the risk of dying is doubled.
- thechao 7y ago
  You’re conflating all-causes death with novel death. It takes the expected death rate of the cohort from 10% to (given full penetration) 30%.
- yotamoron 7y ago
  This is an excellent point. I'm from Israel, and yesterday it was announced that the first corona victim has died. The poor guy was 88 years old, suffered from multiple background illnesses - and suffered a heart attack a few days before he died - it so happens that in addition to all of the above he had corona. Now, honestly - is this REALLY a corona victim? Now check the data from Italy - most deaths were like that, and most of them could have equally died from the flu/common cold/brain stroke/just being old. How far and deep will this madness go?
  - bsaul 7y ago
    i don't understand why you got downvoted. We don't consider someone dying from a cold if he's 80yo with heart attack. We're introducing a novel way of counting casualities, and this is problematic whenever we want to account for the severity of the virus. Now on the other side, hospitals usually aren't flooded the way they are at the moment, or at least that's my impression. So there is definitely something special about the epidemic (although we don't know why : maybe it's just extremely contagious, and makes everybody become sick about the same time, instead of a natural spread for the flu ?)