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Related, there's also the distinct possibility that many had Covid-19 well before it was in public consciousness. Look for ILI (Influenza-like Illness) stats w

Related, there's also the distinct possibility that many had Covid-19 well before it was in public consciousness. Look for ILI (Influenza-like Illness) stats which were appreciably higher in January. The obvious inference is that many had Covid-19 before it was recognised as such. This might be a good thing.

simonh 7y ago
If that were true, we should see a much higher proportion of tested people showing positive. Also we shouldn't see the proportion of people tested being positive shooting up, but we do. Those ILI stats were probably just Flu.
- mrfusion 7y ago
  I believe that most of the current testing only shows active infections?
  - simonh 7y ago
    Yes, and it has shown initially small numbers of active infections, growing rapidly, as a proportion of those tested. If the virus was already widely distributed, we would expect it to be much closer to equilibrium.
nemo44x 7y ago
I think this is underrated. This thing must have been spreading since November here. I know a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and a bad fever, went to the hospital for awhile and tests were negative for flu, etc. doctors just didn’t know what it was. The person has COPD however. But anecdotally I’ve noticed quite a few more colleagues over the last few months out sick “with the flu or something”. No idea. They’re still only testing people with symptoms. We need a randomizes test and a test for antibodies to have any idea how much it has already spread. If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Many probably with very mild symptoms. I could just be in denial right now as well.
- acqq 7y ago
  > If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Because all the effects are limited by the time it takes for them to happen. We know the speed of growth, it's much faster than the expected recovery times. From all known COVID-19 cases the number of recovered are still dominated by the recovered in China. China: reported cases: 81,008 dead: 3,255 recovered: 71,740 Whole world: reported cases: 282,395 dead: 11,822 recovered: 93,189 Virus causing COVID-19 is "novel" meaning not existing among humans at all until a few months ago.
- gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
  You are in denial.
- fma 7y ago
  If you haven't heard about the Seattle Flu Study - this is a great read. Coronavirus was in Seattle before officials confirmed it. The federal government also prevented the researchers from doing more testing, delaying valuable time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...
- magicsmoke 7y ago
  If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients. The first infection in China was traced back to November and they were building hospitals by early February. The only places I've seen the first US infection being dated that early are conspiracies on Chinese social media that claim the origin of COVID19 to be the US instead of Wuhan. The only way that theory works is to date the first infection in the US and claim that Americans bought it into China during the Wuhan Military games. That theory is easy enough to debunk with common sense because if the US had COVID first the hospitals would be completed overwhelmed before China's was, but it's not the first time wishful thinking's buried common sense in Chinese history.
  - 7y ago

simonh 7y ago

If that were true, we should see a much higher proportion of tested people showing positive. Also we shouldn't see the proportion of people tested being positive shooting up, but we do. Those ILI stats were probably just Flu.

mrfusion 7y ago
I believe that most of the current testing only shows active infections?
- simonh 7y ago
  Yes, and it has shown initially small numbers of active infections, growing rapidly, as a proportion of those tested. If the virus was already widely distributed, we would expect it to be much closer to equilibrium.

nemo44x 7y ago

I think this is underrated. This thing must have been spreading since November here. I know a person who back in January acquired something like pneumonia and a bad fever, went to the hospital for awhile and tests were negative for flu, etc. doctors just didn’t know what it was. The person has COPD however. But anecdotally I’ve noticed quite a few more colleagues over the last few months out sick “with the flu or something”. No idea. They’re still only testing people with symptoms. We need a randomizes test and a test for antibodies to have any idea how much it has already spread. If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Many probably with very mild symptoms. I could just be in denial right now as well.

acqq 7y ago
> If it’s as contagious as they say and spreads in asymptotic people then why wouldn’t there be a significant population that has acquired and recovered from this? Because all the effects are limited by the time it takes for them to happen. We know the speed of growth, it's much faster than the expected recovery times. From all known COVID-19 cases the number of recovered are still dominated by the recovered in China. China: reported cases: 81,008 dead: 3,255 recovered: 71,740 Whole world: reported cases: 282,395 dead: 11,822 recovered: 93,189 Virus causing COVID-19 is "novel" meaning not existing among humans at all until a few months ago.
gvjddbnvdrbv 7y ago
You are in denial.
fma 7y ago
If you haven't heard about the Seattle Flu Study - this is a great read. Coronavirus was in Seattle before officials confirmed it. The federal government also prevented the researchers from doing more testing, delaying valuable time. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-de...
magicsmoke 7y ago
If COVID19 was spreading in the US since November then the US hospital system should have been overwhelmed by now with intensive care patients. The first infection in China was traced back to November and they were building hospitals by early February. The only places I've seen the first US infection being dated that early are conspiracies on Chinese social media that claim the origin of COVID19 to be the US instead of Wuhan. The only way that theory works is to date the first infection in the US and claim that Americans bought it into China during the Wuhan Military games. That theory is easy enough to debunk with common sense because if the US had COVID first the hospitals would be completed overwhelmed before China's was, but it's not the first time wishful thinking's buried common sense in Chinese history.
- 7y ago