UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the gr

UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the growth characteristic remained the same across the countries with different policies, and it can be observed, from China and Italy, how long it takes for any policy to decrease the growth. Then check and compare the Italian measures with the UK for your estimate when the UK curve will flatten in the weeks that follow. When the flattening will start will indeed make a huge difference in the direct impact of the virus (the number of ill and dead) between the countries, due to the growth characteristics being what they are. Also see my other posts. The number of "cases" reflects at the moment the capabilities of the whole medical system in each country (it's dependent on who is selected to be tested at all) and the tests used. The number of deaths hides less. Also, even if the specific numbers can't be compared 1 to 1 across the countries, the characteristics of the curves can. The growth is fast but it is comparable, and the measures take time to affect it.