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Original poster. I'm from the UK. Looking at the curves only and leaving out politics completely, the UK curve is by far the slowest growing of the 3, for whate

Original poster. I'm from the UK. Looking at the curves only and leaving out politics completely, the UK curve is by far the slowest growing of the 3, for whatever reason. It's the US that has the most to fear at this point, of the 3 countries.

acqq 7y ago
UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the growth characteristic remained the same across the countries with different policies, and it can be observed, from China and Italy, how long it takes for any policy to decrease the growth. Then check and compare the Italian measures with the UK for your estimate when the UK curve will flatten in the weeks that follow. When the flattening will start will indeed make a huge difference in the direct impact of the virus (the number of ill and dead) between the countries, due to the growth characteristics being what they are. Also see my other posts. The number of "cases" reflects at the moment the capabilities of the whole medical system in each country (it's dependent on who is selected to be tested at all) and the tests used. The number of deaths hides less. Also, even if the specific numbers can't be compared 1 to 1 across the countries, the characteristics of the curves can. The growth is fast but it is comparable, and the measures take time to affect it.
DanBC 7y ago
The UK stopped testing anyone unless they were admitted to hospital for suspected coronavirus.
notahacker 7y ago
UK policy is "testing for coronavirus is not needed if you are staying at home" for symptomatic suspected cases, so it's likely our stats are a bigger underestimate of actual infections than many other countries
dnh44 7y ago
It’s taking a week for them to get test results at the NHS. So currently today’s results are from last weeks tests. Of course that’s assuming the labs doing the testing are doing it first in first out.

acqq 7y ago

UK number of deaths is two weeks behind Italy's. I'm quite sure that that growth will be consistent in the next two weeks in the UK -- namely, up to now, the growth characteristic remained the same across the countries with different policies, and it can be observed, from China and Italy, how long it takes for any policy to decrease the growth. Then check and compare the Italian measures with the UK for your estimate when the UK curve will flatten in the weeks that follow. When the flattening will start will indeed make a huge difference in the direct impact of the virus (the number of ill and dead) between the countries, due to the growth characteristics being what they are. Also see my other posts. The number of "cases" reflects at the moment the capabilities of the whole medical system in each country (it's dependent on who is selected to be tested at all) and the tests used. The number of deaths hides less. Also, even if the specific numbers can't be compared 1 to 1 across the countries, the characteristics of the curves can. The growth is fast but it is comparable, and the measures take time to affect it.

DanBC 7y ago

The UK stopped testing anyone unless they were admitted to hospital for suspected coronavirus.

notahacker 7y ago

UK policy is "testing for coronavirus is not needed if you are staying at home" for symptomatic suspected cases, so it's likely our stats are a bigger underestimate of actual infections than many other countries

dnh44 7y ago

It’s taking a week for them to get test results at the NHS. So currently today’s results are from last weeks tests. Of course that’s assuming the labs doing the testing are doing it first in first out.