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Fair enough, I should have said, ”In some areas”. A little snippet from the CDC I have posted a bunch that I found useful - ”Pandemics begin with an investigat
by 40four 7y ago
Fair enough, I should have said, ”In some areas”. A little snippet from the CDC I have posted a bunch that I found useful -
”Pandemics begin with an investigation phase, followed by recognition, initiation, and acceleration phases. The peak of illnesses occurs at the end of the acceleration phase, which is followed by a deceleration phase, during which there is a decrease in illnesses. Different countries can be in different phases of the pandemic at any point in time and different parts of the same country can also be in different phases of a pandemic.”
So, we know not all the hospitals are experiencing the same levels at the same time. A big reason I wish we were more precisely targeting shutdowns and quarantines.
It doesn’t make sense to throw these blanket executive orders over entire states. As we can see from the slides, the economic consequence are dire. Why not target the cities entering acceleration only?
In the meantime, start building drive thru testing. Distribute thermometers. Practice social distancing & aggressive sanitation, but not destroy out national security in the process.
But this part,
”All of Italy’s victims under 40 have been males with serious existing medical conditions”
Sure it’s early, but even in Italy, in one of the worst places in the world for the virus right now, that information should be very illuminating to us I think.
- airstrike 7y ago> Why not target the cities entering acceleration only? Because the long incubation period and the lack of sufficient testing makes it impossible to know which cities are infected early on. And, to put more bluntly, because we have two models to look at and choose from: the Chinese one, with harsh containment measures that were very effective (if you believe their numbers) and the Italian one, with moderate containment measures and a lack of sense of urgency from the populace, which resulted in a downward spiral with more deaths than China despite having only ~58% the number of cases. > I should have said, ”In some areas”. And no, you shouldn't have said that, you should just wait another week.
- mjul 7y agoHere is a fresh preprint from University of Padova showing that weak quarantines have no significant effect: Quantifying undetected COVID-19 cases and effects of containment measures in Italy https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339915690_Quantifying_undetected_COVID-19_cases_and_effects_of_containment_measures_in_Italy https://www.researchgate.net/publication/339915690_Quantifyi...