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Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%. You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number th
by whb07 7y ago
Nowhere have you seen numbers that remotely approach 1-3%.
You’ve seen the critical, largely elderly population get tested and from that you get that number that’s freaking people out.
Stop spreading panic. With those kinds of numbers China alone would have 10M+ dead. In Japan, Singapore, surrounding nations more millions dead.
Use a bit more common sense. We know we haven’t tested enough in the US, yet we don’t have bodies piling up on the street. You don’t have families of 4 where 2 suddenly die. This has been going on for greater than 3 months now.
Stop spreading fear. The only thing to fear is the terrible consequences of those stuck inside the fear bubble
- empath75 7y agoChina would have had those numbers if they didn’t quarantine a whole region for 3 months. They may still have those numbers after they lift the quarantine.
- whb07 7y agoQuick now do the same for the 50 other countries nearby. What was their reason?
- m_ke 7y ago4 dead and 3 more in critical condition from a single family: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-shatters-new-jersey-family-kills-3-4-more-hospitals-n1163696 https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/coronavirus-shatters-ne... 26 dead at the washington nursing home, 50 tested positive: https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-deaths-washington-nursing-home-outbreak-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-deaths-washingto... Death rates by preexisting condition: https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2020-03/13/23/asset/477a38122bb4/sub-buzz-470-1584141544-1.png?crop=1280:599;0,0&downsize=900:*&output-format=auto&output-quality=auto https://img.buzzfeed.com/buzzfeed-static/static/2020-03/13/2... America has 42% obesity rate and a huge population with diabetes and heart issues, the numbers for 30-60 year olds might end up looking a lot worse than in Asia and Europe.
- smallgovt 7y agoQuestion for OP: does this data change your mind? If not, what would?
- RotaryTelephone 7y agoZombies.
- RandomBacon 7y agoI think a zombie outbreak would be much easier to handle, at least in the US. It would probably be much easier to see who is infected, and thus "eliminate" the problem. In the US, there are plenty of bullets and guns everywhere.
- whb07 7y agoThat it impacted the kids and 20-30 yo cohort the way it impacts the 70+ yo. Also those co-morbidities like high blood pressure have the all important age distinction missing. So yeah if you’re 70 and have high blood pressure it’s worse. It’s perverse to stop world for some low rate CFR for the elderly. The world is made for the young. We shouldn’t destroy it for the elderly. Also actuarial tables for a 75 year old is extremely haunting. People magically forget that a sick 75 year old doesn’t have much time left to live in the first place.
- yibg 7y agoThis is a bit disturbing. We should what, just let the old people die (or at least ~10% of them)?
- whb07 7y agoWhere did you get 10% from? We should treat them as best as possible but not by stopping the world. Look up the actuarial tables for a 70 year old. Living another year is significantly different than for a 45 year old. Then lookup the survival rates for a 70 year old with influenza, suddenly the numbers keeping you up at night start looking weak in comparison.
- alistproducer2 7y agoThe 1-3% is an average among all age groups. You clearly have not looked at the data. For example, in Italy the CFR is somewhere around 14% for elderly. Everyone else is lower such that the nominal death rate, being an average among all groups,.has been consistently running around 8%. Obviously when this matures that rate will go lower because the denominator will grow but the denominator that people care about is the one we have now: who is sick enough to need a test because if I get sick, and thus become part of that denominator, the current rate gives me a good picture of my chances. Was the parent comment slightly hyperbolic, maybe. But you are way underselling the seriousness of this disease and the rationality of being scared of it.
- whb07 7y agoHoly cow. Notice how everyone literally says “there’s not enough testing” but yet you’re able to rationalize the CFR as valid. What you see going to the hospital and getting tested CLEARLY is the most critical number of cases. It’s possible that for every person tested, there are 100 or more that are asymptomatic. Run some numbers on this “highly contagious” disease. Another point why we are in a fear bubble is that everyone parrots the same fear gospel and there’s very few dissenters. Bring on the downvotes you scared folks
- yibg 7y agoThere can be a wide range of assumption. Anywhere from "all the people we know about are all that are infected" to "everyone else in the world is already infected". Regardless, the death tolls kind of speak for themselves. What's more, the increase in death toll too. In Italy alone there are over 4000 dead, with a few hundred more a day now. Italy has a population of 60 million. Extrapolating even the current death count in Italy to the rest of the world, and that's 400k deaths. All indications are that it'll be higher than that uncontrolled. Maybe people are overreacting. But in this case isn't it better to error on the side of caution? Otherwise by the time we realize we're wrong and millions are dying, what do we do then?
- whb07 7y ago
- danharaj 7y agoFear now is better than horror when the healthcare system collapses.
- hpcjoe 7y agoIts 1-3% of confirmed infected, not of the population as a whole or the quarantined area. That 1-3% varies in terms of age and other comorbid factors.