4 ms·
> We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know. That’s the fatality rate within a functioning medic
by pbourke 7y ago
> We don’t actually know how lethal, but it appears 1%-3%, but without widespread testing we wouldn’t know.
That’s the fatality rate within a functioning medical system. It’s safe to assume that if the virus is uncontrolled the rate will be substantially higher.
- logicchains 7y agoWhy? There wasn't enough testing/medical capacity for at least the first month in Wuhan, and the rate wasn't any higher.
- OGWhales 7y agoWell we can look at Italy for example. Also America has a lot of obese people, which are supposedly at a high risk, so it’s possible we see a higher fatality rate. I personally don’t think so just trying to answer your question
- logicchains 7y agoWe don't know the total number of infections in Italy so we can't get a meaningful estimate from there.
- mjul 7y agoMeneghini and Gram Pedersen of University of Padova just extended the standard “SIR” epidemiology model with quarantine and it has the nice property of being able to estimate the infections from the observables. Preprint on Researchgate: “ Quantifying undetected COVID-19 cases and effects of containment measures in Italy”