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As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't acc

As a counterpoint, Illinois just ordered residents to shelter-in-place after closing schools and restaurants a week ago and our new cases of COVID-19 aren't accelerating upward as of today. This model also predicts far fewer deaths with shelter-in-place rules: https://covidactnow.org/state/IL https://covidactnow.org/state/IL As governor Pritzker said: "I fully recognize I am choosing between saving people's lives and saving people's livelihoods, but ultimately you can't have a livelihood if you don't have a life."

toomuchtodo 7y ago
The problem will be how long the shelter in place can be maintained; as long as you have folks coming in infected from other states, once the mass quarantine is lifted, outbreaks will flare up. This only ends with a vaccine and enough people recovered after infection we arrive near enough herd immunity. Until then this will have to burn through populations. Regardless, I can appreciate and support Pritzker’s response, and efforts to “flatten the curve”. It’s an unfortunate situation with no clear path to success.
- sokoloff 7y ago
  I agree with your first paragraph. On the second, I would think a moderately successful therapeutic protocol would go a long way to quickly getting us out of the houses. A vaccine is too long a time away to count on; there won’t be an economy left by then.
- ericd 7y ago
  We don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, not for lack of trying. AFAIK we’ve never made a vaccine for a coronavirus. This isn’t the time to be relying on silver bullets.
  - zeroonetwothree 7y ago
    Common cold is caused by hundreds of different viruses so a single vaccine is not useful
    - ericd 7y ago
      Similarly, this one is mutating pretty quickly: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85500?xid=nl_popmed_2020-03-19&eun=g1148356d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CoronaBreak_031920&utm_term=NL_Daily_Breaking_News_Openers_Active https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85500...
mrfusion 7y ago
It should take quite a while (several weeks) to see the effects of any actions. Anyone who just caught it has a bit of time Before it gets severe.
- smileysteve 7y ago
  Roughly a minimum of 10 days; 5 days for symptoms to appear, 5 days for tests to come back from those showing symptoms.
hanniabu 7y ago
If this was done from the start then we could have recovered from it much easier. We should have never waited when we saw this was the road every other country was clearly going down and they handling the situation better than the US before the shut downs.
ccktlmazeltov 7y ago
Cases are lagging apparently, peaking at two weeks after the initiation of a lockdown.
empath75 7y ago
It takes two weeks for symptoms to show up.
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  Ok, so where are the cases from 2 weeks ago?
  - maxerickson 7y ago
    In Michigan (where I live and so am paying attention), there were 80 positive tests reported as of Wednesday and there are now 549 positive tests reported. The cases from 2 weeks ago are seeking medical care. I'm slightly optimistic, testing has ramped up the last few days with a large spike instead of an unimaginable one, and we will get a clearer picture as they start broadening the criteria.
syshum 7y ago
I more or less agree with a temporary shut down however I see the quote all the time, and it is a stupid statement, because you equally can not have a life with out a livelihood This the the doctors delima, that does not factor in quality of life in to the "life" equation, life with no quality is not much of a life. Further I have big problems with the Governer or the government making that choice, it should not be the government choice of my livelihood over my life, in either direction. No only is it shocking how fast people willing toss the economy aside and expect government checks to save them, it is also shocking how fast people simply toss aside all civil liberties.
- enobrev 7y ago
  I generally agree. That said, we tried the personal responsibility route, and then the bars packed up for St. Patrick's day and the airports ended up becoming giant petri dishes - literally overnight. And then many, many, many people decided that "don't panic" meant somewhere between clear all the shelves at every store and ignore the problem until it goes away. I don't envy the local governments trying to contain this with almost no data and no help or direction from the federal government.
  - syshum 7y ago
    Well I am equally not sure why it is federal governments responsibility to help and direct In our system of government the State Governments are suppose to be the most powerful, not the federal government it is a Union of States after all. The fact that in the last 100 years or so we continually have centralized more and more power into the hands of the federal government is a huge issue, but instead of recognizing that issue people seeming want to put more and more power federally and continue to strip their local governments of power The smaller the unit of power the faster it can react to local changes. In situations like this it SHOULD be local government leading the charge not a slow monolithic federal government
    - enobrev 7y ago
      That's fair, but this is exactly the sort of issue that needs to be orchestrated at a higher level. If Illinois handles this perectly somehow, but the surrounding states do not, then Illinois' efforts will be wasted and overcome by the neighbors. There's no way this sort of problem will be resolved without the entire country being on the same page for the solution. That's exactly the sort of thing the federal government is good for.

toomuchtodo 7y ago

The problem will be how long the shelter in place can be maintained; as long as you have folks coming in infected from other states, once the mass quarantine is lifted, outbreaks will flare up. This only ends with a vaccine and enough people recovered after infection we arrive near enough herd immunity. Until then this will have to burn through populations. Regardless, I can appreciate and support Pritzker’s response, and efforts to “flatten the curve”. It’s an unfortunate situation with no clear path to success.

sokoloff 7y ago
I agree with your first paragraph. On the second, I would think a moderately successful therapeutic protocol would go a long way to quickly getting us out of the houses. A vaccine is too long a time away to count on; there won’t be an economy left by then.
ericd 7y ago
We don’t have a vaccine for the common cold, not for lack of trying. AFAIK we’ve never made a vaccine for a coronavirus. This isn’t the time to be relying on silver bullets.
- zeroonetwothree 7y ago
  Common cold is caused by hundreds of different viruses so a single vaccine is not useful
  - ericd 7y ago
    Similarly, this one is mutating pretty quickly: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85500?xid=nl_popmed_2020-03-19&eun=g1148356d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=CoronaBreak_031920&utm_term=NL_Daily_Breaking_News_Openers_Active https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85500...

mrfusion 7y ago

It should take quite a while (several weeks) to see the effects of any actions. Anyone who just caught it has a bit of time Before it gets severe.

smileysteve 7y ago
Roughly a minimum of 10 days; 5 days for symptoms to appear, 5 days for tests to come back from those showing symptoms.

hanniabu 7y ago

If this was done from the start then we could have recovered from it much easier. We should have never waited when we saw this was the road every other country was clearly going down and they handling the situation better than the US before the shut downs.

ccktlmazeltov 7y ago

Cases are lagging apparently, peaking at two weeks after the initiation of a lockdown.

empath75 7y ago

It takes two weeks for symptoms to show up.

MikeAmelung 7y ago
Ok, so where are the cases from 2 weeks ago?
- maxerickson 7y ago
  In Michigan (where I live and so am paying attention), there were 80 positive tests reported as of Wednesday and there are now 549 positive tests reported. The cases from 2 weeks ago are seeking medical care. I'm slightly optimistic, testing has ramped up the last few days with a large spike instead of an unimaginable one, and we will get a clearer picture as they start broadening the criteria.

syshum 7y ago

I more or less agree with a temporary shut down however I see the quote all the time, and it is a stupid statement, because you equally can not have a life with out a livelihood This the the doctors delima, that does not factor in quality of life in to the "life" equation, life with no quality is not much of a life. Further I have big problems with the Governer or the government making that choice, it should not be the government choice of my livelihood over my life, in either direction. No only is it shocking how fast people willing toss the economy aside and expect government checks to save them, it is also shocking how fast people simply toss aside all civil liberties.

enobrev 7y ago
I generally agree. That said, we tried the personal responsibility route, and then the bars packed up for St. Patrick's day and the airports ended up becoming giant petri dishes - literally overnight. And then many, many, many people decided that "don't panic" meant somewhere between clear all the shelves at every store and ignore the problem until it goes away. I don't envy the local governments trying to contain this with almost no data and no help or direction from the federal government.
- syshum 7y ago
  Well I am equally not sure why it is federal governments responsibility to help and direct In our system of government the State Governments are suppose to be the most powerful, not the federal government it is a Union of States after all. The fact that in the last 100 years or so we continually have centralized more and more power into the hands of the federal government is a huge issue, but instead of recognizing that issue people seeming want to put more and more power federally and continue to strip their local governments of power The smaller the unit of power the faster it can react to local changes. In situations like this it SHOULD be local government leading the charge not a slow monolithic federal government
  - enobrev 7y ago
    That's fair, but this is exactly the sort of issue that needs to be orchestrated at a higher level. If Illinois handles this perectly somehow, but the surrounding states do not, then Illinois' efforts will be wasted and overcome by the neighbors. There's no way this sort of problem will be resolved without the entire country being on the same page for the solution. That's exactly the sort of thing the federal government is good for.