It's a fuzzy line as to what is predicted or not. One of most catastrophic earthquakes in recorded American history took place in 1811 in a place called New Ma

It's a fuzzy line as to what is predicted or not. One of most catastrophic earthquakes in recorded American history took place in 1811 in a place called New Madrid, Missouri, not far from Kansas. I'd predict that it's going to happen there again. If it does, I'd still call it a black swan, since the systemic incentives to not prepare for such an earthquake in that area are probably optimized for the short-term.