5 ms·
Your numbers are totally unrealistic. Assuming the growth rate is similar as in Europe (and afaik there is no reason to think it is any different), if you start
by yiyus 7y ago
Your numbers are totally unrealistic. Assuming the growth rate is similar as in Europe (and afaik there is no reason to think it is any different), if you start the quarantine with hospitals at 50%, they will be at 100% capacity in 3 days, and the cases that require hospitalization will keep doubling every 3 days for at least 2-3 weeks. A quarantine won't magically reduce it to 10%.
- DesiLurker 7y agothats a valid criticism, but I didn't mean the thresholds as prescriptive. they would depend upon a few things but actual values can be calculated based on infection rate & also be learnt from past cycles after you have gone through it once. the idea is that quarantine will slow down R0 enough to give hospitals a breather & work through the cases. also it will buy enough time to manufacture more ventilators. Lastly once we go through a couple of these on-off cycles it will help establish that the virus is a know quantity to the larger economy so we can plan around this. which is way better than current 'OMG we are headed for depression' style panic.