3 ms·

Maybe I don't understand. The number of confirmed cases is going up exponentially in all of the warm locations you mention. This is in spite of a lack of testin

Maybe I don't understand. The number of confirmed cases is going up exponentially in all of the warm locations you mention. This is in spite of a lack of testing. How is that evidence of R < 1?

tomerico 7y ago
What we are seeing is that the warmer the place, the slower the growth, with tropical or very warm places (Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, India, etc.) showing an R0 < 1 The point is that places like California will experience slow growth which will also decline quickly with the warming weather, not that every place has negative growth right now.
- svara 7y ago
  Negative R0 meaning the virus actually heals people? ;) Maybe you should read this from an actual epidemiologist: https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/ https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-o...
  - romski 7y ago
    more data is needed; the way that article is written is very casual and this is not a peer reviewed paper.
    - svara 7y ago
      Fair, but the author is about as well-respected an epidemiologist as you will find. The article is explaining what the default assumption should be. Empirical data might change that view.