3 ms·
I agree. The graphs are very pretty but would look very different if the R0 was even slightly modified. The mortality rates probably varies widely by state demo
by AndrewStephens 7y ago
I agree. The graphs are very pretty but would look very different if the R0 was even slightly modified. The mortality rates probably varies widely by state demographics as well.
That said, the implication that strict isolation should be maintained is almost certainly correct.
- maxwhenderson 7y agoHey guys - owner of the model in question here. Thanks for your feedback, and yes, the model isn't perfect. Idea is just to give some forward-looking picture for policy-makers to use to make decision. Interestingly, the model is not nearly as sensitive to R-values as you would think, until they get under 1.5 (half the current observed number in most places). See here: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-doubling-time-dots-and-95-CI-vertical-lines-as-a-function-of_fig5_258956572 https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Doubling-time-Average-do...
- ahnick 7y agoReally appreciate you putting this together.