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Naive question: in the states I looked at, the "California-style shelter-in-place" line consistently goes up again toward the right side of the graph (end of Ju
by chipotle_coyote 7y ago
Naive question: in the states I looked at, the "California-style shelter-in-place" line consistently goes up again toward the right side of the graph (end of June to July), whereas none of the other approaches have that second lift. Why is that?
- salmon30salmon 7y agoBecause the first wave is enough to develop herd immunity and reduce the R-rate of the virus
- LargeWu 7y agoThe second lift would suggest that isn't true.
- chipotle_coyote 7y agoBut the second lift suggests the model is showing the R-rate going up after a drop, which is what I'm asking about. The other curves -- which presumably also involve herd immunity to some degree -- are pretty much bell curves.
- foota 7y agoBecause herd immunity isn't acquired with effective quarantine, so after quarantine ends people become infected again. This doesn't happen with the two weaker options since herd immunity is effective, and I guess they assume complete elimination of the virus with a totalitarian lockdown.