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So according to these models, we should be Wuhan-ing our states?

by Leary 7y ago

ars 7y ago
You don't need these models to tell you that. It's self evident that if you keep people from contacting each other you can stop things. It's just not so clear it's possible to do such a lockdown in non-Authoritarian, free, countries.
- jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
  It is possible and in fact it has happened already in a lot of European states.
  - int_19h 7y ago
    Enacting a lockdown is possible, but having the populace respect it - or enforce it otherwise - is another matter. Besides, the worst lockdowns have only just begun recently. There are a lot of people who will go ahead with, say, a 2-week lockdown, but will balk at 3 months. The true test for the ability to maintain things that way is still ahead for Western countries.
  - Rapzid 7y ago
    It's happening in a lot of United States!
yumraj 7y ago
Well I still have a fundamental question, what happens when China, or anyplace else, un-Wuhan's? They seem to be opening stores, starting flights to SFO, but surely China is not clear of the virus. So, are we expecting a pick up in infections now. And, if not, please explain why not.. I'm really curious..
- joshfraser 7y ago
  They're starting to open up now. It works fine as long as you have broad testing & can identify everyone who has been exposed to it. Exponential curves are easy to stop as long as you catch them early.
- rojobuffalo 7y ago
  Here's an expert discussing that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQmMkPj-mE&t=3m8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQmMkPj-mE&t=3m8s I get the impression that it's BS to say "look at South Korea and China, they're beating the outbreak and will soon be able to relax because they have lots of testing and transmission tracing". I haven't heard a single expert suggest that a "second wave" is avoidable at this point. It might have been avoidable if the whole world had reacted quickly and decisively in the early stages, but that ship has sailed. The CDC also suggested that China was reporting falsified data in January (not surprising). Why should we trust their numbers now?

So according to these models, we should be Wuhan-ing our states?

by Leary 7y ago

So according to these models, we should be Wuhan-ing our states?

ars 7y ago

You don't need these models to tell you that. It's self evident that if you keep people from contacting each other you can stop things. It's just not so clear it's possible to do such a lockdown in non-Authoritarian, free, countries.

jfkebwjsbx 7y ago
It is possible and in fact it has happened already in a lot of European states.
- int_19h 7y ago
  Enacting a lockdown is possible, but having the populace respect it - or enforce it otherwise - is another matter. Besides, the worst lockdowns have only just begun recently. There are a lot of people who will go ahead with, say, a 2-week lockdown, but will balk at 3 months. The true test for the ability to maintain things that way is still ahead for Western countries.
- Rapzid 7y ago
  It's happening in a lot of United States!

yumraj 7y ago

Well I still have a fundamental question, what happens when China, or anyplace else, un-Wuhan's? They seem to be opening stores, starting flights to SFO, but surely China is not clear of the virus. So, are we expecting a pick up in infections now. And, if not, please explain why not.. I'm really curious..

joshfraser 7y ago
They're starting to open up now. It works fine as long as you have broad testing & can identify everyone who has been exposed to it. Exponential curves are easy to stop as long as you catch them early.
rojobuffalo 7y ago
Here's an expert discussing that: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQmMkPj-mE&t=3m8s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpQmMkPj-mE&t=3m8s I get the impression that it's BS to say "look at South Korea and China, they're beating the outbreak and will soon be able to relax because they have lots of testing and transmission tracing". I haven't heard a single expert suggest that a "second wave" is avoidable at this point. It might have been avoidable if the whole world had reacted quickly and decisively in the early stages, but that ship has sailed. The CDC also suggested that China was reporting falsified data in January (not surprising). Why should we trust their numbers now?