A good basic sanity check is to look at the log-graph of total cases in any given country, not the whole world. Take Italy for example. You’ll see immediately

A good basic sanity check is to look at the log-graph of total cases in any given country, not the whole world. Take Italy for example. You’ll see immediately the growth is not a constant exponent. Nor would even simple theoretical models expect it to be. It’s a logistics curve, or “S” curve, which means the exponent starts out at the highest value (once it takes off) and then is constantly decreasing over time. What that looks like in the logarithmic charts is a line which starts at a high slope and flattens over time. See, for example: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/