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The problem we are going to have in the US is some states are responding better than others. NY looks bad right now because they are testing a lot. States lik

The problem we are going to have in the US is some states are responding better than others. NY looks bad right now because they are testing a lot. States like Florida, Louisiana and Georgia are already in double digit deaths each and don't have the positive cases to account for them. Going forward the rate of deaths will be far more indicative of what's happening than just the positive cases and that is going to continue to climb for at least 4 more weeks. Will we see a ban on interstate travel? What happens when one state gets the outbreak under control while another state's cases are still increasing? I'm extremely doubtful that any one state in the US will see a significant slowdown in cases in the next 4 weeks. No European country has yet...

fiftyfifty 7y ago
Italy and Spain each had a record number of deaths today at 627 and 212 respectively. The next two weeks are going to be terrible in the US.
- dyingkneepad 7y ago
  We get shocked when an airplane with 150-300 people falls: we spend months talking about it. Now we see multiple instances of these numbers daily: two airplanes in Italy, one in Spain, a small one in the US, but it still doesn't feel as terrifying as a real airplane crash to me. I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know. OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.
  - fiftyfifty 7y ago
    The one that bothers me is 9-11, how many trillions of dollars did the US spend after that on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the war against terror? We are likely to see several 9-11s worth of deaths in the US due to Covid-19, will we spend even a fraction of what we spent after 9-11 to be more prepared for the next pandemic?
    - codyb 7y ago
      Considering it’s been less than a month and there are already half trillion dollar plans to help Americans out being proposed, it seems like the answer is probably yes.
redisman 7y ago
As you can see with WA, deaths is not a perfect metric either. Florida also has a lot of retirement homes and one getting hit will skew that metric a lot.
- ImaCake 7y ago
  Yeah, I am very skeptical of extrapolation from deaths to get total cases. Just looking at China's numbers province by province reveals that the death rate varies quite a bit. Hubei has a very high mortality rate compared to the provinces surrounding it. Most provinces around Hubei had roughly 1 death per 1000 cases. But Henan, to the north had 22 deaths per thousand. There doesn't seem to be such a thing as a titular mortality rate for these viruses.

fiftyfifty 7y ago

Italy and Spain each had a record number of deaths today at 627 and 212 respectively. The next two weeks are going to be terrible in the US.

dyingkneepad 7y ago
We get shocked when an airplane with 150-300 people falls: we spend months talking about it. Now we see multiple instances of these numbers daily: two airplanes in Italy, one in Spain, a small one in the US, but it still doesn't feel as terrifying as a real airplane crash to me. I'm not saying I'm denying COVID or that the deaths are not horrible, just that for some unknown reason airplane crashes still seem so much more horrible: I'm talking about feelings, not facts. I don't know. OTOH, thinking about the economic implications of this crisis prevents me from sleeping.
- fiftyfifty 7y ago
  The one that bothers me is 9-11, how many trillions of dollars did the US spend after that on the Iraq and Afghanistan wars and the war against terror? We are likely to see several 9-11s worth of deaths in the US due to Covid-19, will we spend even a fraction of what we spent after 9-11 to be more prepared for the next pandemic?
  - codyb 7y ago
    Considering it’s been less than a month and there are already half trillion dollar plans to help Americans out being proposed, it seems like the answer is probably yes.

redisman 7y ago

As you can see with WA, deaths is not a perfect metric either. Florida also has a lot of retirement homes and one getting hit will skew that metric a lot.

ImaCake 7y ago
Yeah, I am very skeptical of extrapolation from deaths to get total cases. Just looking at China's numbers province by province reveals that the death rate varies quite a bit. Hubei has a very high mortality rate compared to the provinces surrounding it. Most provinces around Hubei had roughly 1 death per 1000 cases. But Henan, to the north had 22 deaths per thousand. There doesn't seem to be such a thing as a titular mortality rate for these viruses.