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Given the exponential growth curves, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the number of deaths right now to the number of cases a few days ago? On March 1
by neuronexmachina 7y ago
Given the exponential growth curves, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the number of deaths right now to the number of cases a few days ago? On March 16 (4 days ago) there were 950 identified cases in New York state, yielding a 4% CFR.
https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-coronavirus-growing-in-new-york-chart-shows-dramatic-rise-in-cases.html https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-cor...
- 40four 7y agoGood point. As someone else said, deaths might not have caught up yet. But if we keep it together, I think we can hope to land at numbers similar to South Korea. They are well into deceleration phase, and are currently sitting at about 1%. Same for Switzerland.
- ls612 7y agoNo, because in other countries the fatalities and new cases have grown in tandem, not on a delay. This is more indicative that the epidemiological models were somewhat accurate and the true CFR when you catch the mild cases is much closer to 1% than 3.5%.