2 ms·

> It is absolutely clear from this that the idea of "flattening the curve" rather than completely suppressing an outbreak was being seriously considered until v

• balfirevic 7y ago
  The report from Imperial College [0] indicates that it may be impossible to flatten it enough for it not to overwhelm medical care capacity. It wasn't (and still isn't) wrong to try to flatten it - it's what gives time to investigate the appropriate course of action. But unfortunately it seems like flattening won't be enough and more extreme measures (called "suppression" in the report, whereas flattening strategy is called "mitigation") need to be taken. The report also notes that such extreme measures have never been taken on the timescale they anticipate to be required to successfully suppress the disease (basically until the cure or vaccine is found and widely distributed - at least 18 month and possibly years), so we have no idea how that will turn out. [0] - https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
• Mvandenbergh 7y ago
  It's not wrong, necessarily, the issue is that ICU admission rates even in young people are high enough that you need to flatten the curve an incredible amount in order not to overwhelm ICU capacity. (They're not high in absolute terms, but an arithmetically small change in a small number can have massive effects)