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Quote from NYTimes: > For days, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City has pushed for a “shelter in place” order and the governor has repeatedly dismissed the i
by SoylentOrange 7y ago
Quote from NYTimes:
> For days, Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City has pushed for a “shelter in place” order and the governor has repeatedly dismissed the idea, saying he would not quarantine New Yorkers in their homes.
He also spoke on a popular podcast earlier this week about DEFINITELY NOT taking this kind of action
- BoiledCabbage 7y agoThe side effects of exponential growth. It changes minds quickly.
- 40four 7y agoI think the growth is a result of a focused effort to ramp up testing. Meanwhile if we are to have any confidence in the numbers (we probably shouldn't), according to the John's Hopkins counts, New York state currently has a surprisingly low CFR. 38 deaths / 5715 cases = 0.7% CFR
- CydeWeys 7y agoMost of those cases happened recently enough for the people not to have died from them yet.
- BoiledCabbage 7y agoIt's both. Ramping up testing which is giving a view into the impact of the previously underestimated exponential growth. The low CFR rate is simply time. It takes roughly 3 weeks from infection to death. Meaning deaths should be compared with count of infections 2-3 weeks ago to calculate CFR. Separately, there likely were a number more than died from it previously that didn't get testing because testing was so hard to come by (and the scope of the spread was not yet understood). If NYC hospitals get overwhelmed like they are possibly on pace to, don't be shocked if you see CFR rise up to 4-5%. Especially as growth in new cases no longer out strip existing (which suppresses naively calculated CFR).
- neuronexmachina 7y agoGiven the exponential growth curves, wouldn't it be more appropriate to compare the number of deaths right now to the number of cases a few days ago? On March 16 (4 days ago) there were 950 identified cases in New York state, yielding a 4% CFR. https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-coronavirus-growing-in-new-york-chart-shows-dramatic-rise-in-cases.html https://www.syracuse.com/coronavirus/2020/03/how-fast-is-cor...
- 40four 7y agoGood point. As someone else said, deaths might not have caught up yet. But if we keep it together, I think we can hope to land at numbers similar to South Korea. They are well into deceleration phase, and are currently sitting at about 1%. Same for Switzerland.
- ls612 7y agoNo, because in other countries the fatalities and new cases have grown in tandem, not on a delay. This is more indicative that the epidemiological models were somewhat accurate and the true CFR when you catch the mild cases is much closer to 1% than 3.5%.
- im3w1l 7y ago38 / 5715 = 0.007 = 0.7%. Which is roughly what we expect. Edit: originally post I replied to said 0.007%
- 40four 7y agoThanks, little typo there by me. This does seem to be a more realistic number that the original 3+. South Korea is sitting around 1% and they into the deceleration phase.
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- vehementi 7y agoActually, we have always been at war with Eurasia. Trump knew it was going to be a pandemic all along!
- downerending 7y agoIt's got to be killing him to even appear to be following de Blasio's advice. Those two probably hate each other more than they hate the virus.