3 ms·
The growth rate is different in different countries. The USA is currently on a 35% slope. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid
by sp332 7y ago
The growth rate is different in different countries. The USA is currently on a 35% slope. http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/
- btilly 7y agoThat is growth rate as measured by confirmed cases. However given various restrictions on availability of testing, confirmed cases and real cases are likely to tell very different stories. Given that most countries refuse to test, refuse to test, hit an "oh shit moment" and start ramping up, the confirmed rate that your link uses measures testing more than actual infection rates. References such as https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... have used a doubling time of about 5 days. As https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-ans... points out, studies of what happened in Wuhan suggest a real doubling time of about 6 days. There are admittedly a lot of question marks about everyone's numbers.
- nerdponx 7y agoNew York's growth rate is going to look terrifyingly high as testing capability ramps up significantly.
- ummonk 7y agoIt is ramping up significantly, with a corresponding growth rate of confirmed cases. 4 days ago it was approaching 1000. It will probably be 10,000 by tomorrow.
- gwright 7y agoThere has been a steady drumbeat of warnings to expect that spike, but unfortunately the statistical nuances of epidemiology will be lost on many.