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The newest CDC estimates are that young people require hospitalization at rates between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5. At scale, that’s an enormous number. The “flatten the

by gdubs 7y ago

The newest CDC estimates are that young people require hospitalization at rates between 1 in 7 and 1 in 5. At scale, that’s an enormous number. The “flatten the curve” trope feels a bit tired at this point, but it’s true nonetheless. We have to avoid breaking our medical system at all costs. If we don’t, what happens to the rather large percentage of young people who require hospitalization? It’s no stretch to assume that many would die. Let alone the fact that mortality for young people is already many times higher than the flu. Break the healthcare system and that goes up dramatically. On top of that, break the healthcare system and what happens to all the normal, baseline, hospitalization needs? They’re not going to suddenly disappear. Survivable medical events become fatal. How do you recover as a society from that, without an economic depression like none we’ve seen in our lifetime? We desperately want to prevent an economic depression, and for good reason! But the chessboard is what it is. We don’t have a whole lot of moves.

twblalock 7y ago
What if the flatter curve is still above the dotted line that represents hospital capacity? Would shutting down most of the economy still be worth it? That “flatten the curve” graph people are sharing is just a visual aid. It’s not based on real data. How could it be? Hospital capacity varies by region but everyone in the country is passing around the same graph. It’s nice to flatten the curve, but if the flattened curve isn’t low enough then we will overload our health care system anyway, and we will add an economic shutdown on top of that.
- sxv 7y ago
  Flattening the curve is not all-or-nothing as you imply. If we marginally exceed hospital capacity (in a given area) we will have a small number of people who cannot get the treatment they need. At that point every additional patient is another victim of too steep a curve.

by gdubs 7y ago

twblalock 7y ago

What if the flatter curve is still above the dotted line that represents hospital capacity? Would shutting down most of the economy still be worth it? That “flatten the curve” graph people are sharing is just a visual aid. It’s not based on real data. How could it be? Hospital capacity varies by region but everyone in the country is passing around the same graph. It’s nice to flatten the curve, but if the flattened curve isn’t low enough then we will overload our health care system anyway, and we will add an economic shutdown on top of that.

sxv 7y ago
Flattening the curve is not all-or-nothing as you imply. If we marginally exceed hospital capacity (in a given area) we will have a small number of people who cannot get the treatment they need. At that point every additional patient is another victim of too steep a curve.