4 ms·

Doesn't the median age of 60 years for positively diagnosed patients suggest a huge number of non-detected cases?

by kayoone 7y ago

dede4metal 7y ago
Indeed. They only test who is really really ill
pmorici 7y ago
Depends on the median age of the population. Italy skews older.
dakrisht 7y ago
Probably tens of thousands of undiagnosed, asymptomatic. Aka super carriers. The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. Eventually, the more infected, the more that will die. The young are just carrier pigeons and don’t even know it.
- laGrenouille 7y ago
  > The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. I think you are giving a bit too much agency to the virus. It has evolved in such a way that optimises for further spreading for sure, but I do not think it has a sneaky strategy to use young people as attack vectors. What's more likely is that it has evolved to replicate and spread within the human population, while not acting so fast as to kill most people. The problem is that replicating at a rate that doesn't kill most people will kill some of the oldest and sickest within a population.
  - ram1981 7y ago
    Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. They don’t gain if they end up killing the host because that ends them too. Not to sound apocalyptic but I think their holy grail is something like what the machines do to humans in the movie Matrix
    - rumanator 7y ago
      > Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. That assumption has no basis at all. Evolutionary pressures don't happen due to a intentional guidance from the evolving species. Individuals mutate by chance and replicate as they can. That's it.
      - ram1981 7y ago
        This does have basis Refer to this section in the publication from National Academy of Sciences. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/?report=reader#ddd00005 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/?report=reader#...
    - _xerxes_ 7y ago
      I think their holy grail would be to become part of our genome like many others have: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/science/ancient-viruses-dna-genome.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/science/ancient-viruses-d...
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- rumanator 7y ago
  > The virus is smart a You're making a mountain out of a mole hill. The virus spreads as it's possible, and those who carry the virus experience the infection differently depending on some traits.
CubsFan1060 7y ago
Assuming this was true, and there's not tons of dead young people, it also would seem to back up that people under 60 are at far less risk.
- dakrisht 7y ago
  Right. One issue we’re having globally is that we simply cannot get an accurate fatality rate. We’re only seeing the sickest, most critical patients and the most overwhelmed hospital systems in cities. I think MOST patients being tested in hotspots like Lombardy are those who are already at the hospital, and if you’re at the hospital you’re not in good shape. Probably tons of positive cases at home with a fever, or mild symptoms or no symptoms. And of course, tons of people who are not tested and probably never will be. Totally asymptomatic. We can’t get an accurate fatality rate without these “infected but asymptomatic” cases. Didn’t an Italian doctor do a small study showing 98% asymptomatic positive cases?
  - CubsFan1060 7y ago
    Germany currently looks to be an interesting case. As of CNN this morning, they have 13,957 cases confirmed, and 31 deaths. The deaths may of course crank up to a "normal" level, but I wonder if it's possible that they are testing many more people and getting a more accurate view. (of course, this comment will probably age poorly)
    - CubsFan1060 7y ago
      Oh. This article says it way better than I could: https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e... Sorry about the paywall. If you search for it via google and click it from there that's how I found it (and why I didn't realize it was paywall) Basic summary: Too Early to tell. But Germany is doing 160,000 tests/week, which is more than lots of countries. They may be getting a more complete picture of who is all infected.
      - 7y ago

Doesn't the median age of 60 years for positively diagnosed patients suggest a huge number of non-detected cases?

dede4metal 7y ago

Indeed. They only test who is really really ill

pmorici 7y ago

Depends on the median age of the population. Italy skews older.

dakrisht 7y ago

Probably tens of thousands of undiagnosed, asymptomatic. Aka super carriers. The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. Eventually, the more infected, the more that will die. The young are just carrier pigeons and don’t even know it.

laGrenouille 7y ago
> The virus is smart and has evolved from an evolutionary standpoint. Infect younger and asymptomatic patients with the goal of spreading and infecting as many as possible. I think you are giving a bit too much agency to the virus. It has evolved in such a way that optimises for further spreading for sure, but I do not think it has a sneaky strategy to use young people as attack vectors. What's more likely is that it has evolved to replicate and spread within the human population, while not acting so fast as to kill most people. The problem is that replicating at a rate that doesn't kill most people will kill some of the oldest and sickest within a population.
- ram1981 7y ago
  Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. They don’t gain if they end up killing the host because that ends them too. Not to sound apocalyptic but I think their holy grail is something like what the machines do to humans in the movie Matrix
  - rumanator 7y ago
    > Another important insight is that Viruses, and germs in general, try to evolve and adapt inside the host. That assumption has no basis at all. Evolutionary pressures don't happen due to a intentional guidance from the evolving species. Individuals mutate by chance and replicate as they can. That's it.
    - ram1981 7y ago
      This does have basis Refer to this section in the publication from National Academy of Sciences. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/?report=reader#ddd00005 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK209710/?report=reader#...
  - _xerxes_ 7y ago
    I think their holy grail would be to become part of our genome like many others have: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/science/ancient-viruses-dna-genome.html https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/04/science/ancient-viruses-d...
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
rumanator 7y ago
> The virus is smart a You're making a mountain out of a mole hill. The virus spreads as it's possible, and those who carry the virus experience the infection differently depending on some traits.

CubsFan1060 7y ago

Assuming this was true, and there's not tons of dead young people, it also would seem to back up that people under 60 are at far less risk.

dakrisht 7y ago
Right. One issue we’re having globally is that we simply cannot get an accurate fatality rate. We’re only seeing the sickest, most critical patients and the most overwhelmed hospital systems in cities. I think MOST patients being tested in hotspots like Lombardy are those who are already at the hospital, and if you’re at the hospital you’re not in good shape. Probably tons of positive cases at home with a fever, or mild symptoms or no symptoms. And of course, tons of people who are not tested and probably never will be. Totally asymptomatic. We can’t get an accurate fatality rate without these “infected but asymptomatic” cases. Didn’t an Italian doctor do a small study showing 98% asymptomatic positive cases?
- CubsFan1060 7y ago
  Germany currently looks to be an interesting case. As of CNN this morning, they have 13,957 cases confirmed, and 31 deaths. The deaths may of course crank up to a "normal" level, but I wonder if it's possible that they are testing many more people and getting a more accurate view. (of course, this comment will probably age poorly)
  - CubsFan1060 7y ago
    Oh. This article says it way better than I could: https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3 https://www.ft.com/content/c0755b30-69bb-11ea-800d-da70cff6e... Sorry about the paywall. If you search for it via google and click it from there that's how I found it (and why I didn't realize it was paywall) Basic summary: Too Early to tell. But Germany is doing 160,000 tests/week, which is more than lots of countries. They may be getting a more complete picture of who is all infected.
    - 7y ago