Sorry, but that is to me a textbook example of what I think as case 2. It is not about hard statistics. It is your job to translate all those uncertainties and

Sorry, but that is to me a textbook example of what I think as case 2. It is not about hard statistics. It is your job to translate all those uncertainties and sources of knowledge to (subjective) probabilities. If you do not do that, you are doing things wrong. I do not see how there is anything to even discuss here. Probabilities are the current best tool we have to work with uncertainties. I do not hire a doctor to just tell me what will be done. I hire a doctor as a consultant to give advice what he thinks is wise given his knowledge and then I do the decision what I do with my body and life. And the consultant should damn well give the best available information he has, just not think that I am so dumb that I can't decide myself.[1] (Again, sorry for the rant, I have been way too frustrated on this specific issue earlier in my life) [1] Obviously, most of the time I do agree with doctor's recommendations. But if I am one day having a cancer and a doctor refuses to estimate the odds for me living another month, year and decade, strong verbal abuse is given.