4 ms·

Tell me how a virus that started in China (a country with 1 billion humans and grew unchecked or for months), could really have less fatalities than Italy, a co

Tell me how a virus that started in China (a country with 1 billion humans and grew unchecked or for months), could really have less fatalities than Italy, a country with 25x less people... Unless the numbers are crap, then it makes total sense. But the WHO disagrees, ah well, then I guess we should stop using our thinking machines.

spats1990 7y ago
>grew unchecked or for months It really didn't "grow unchecked for months". >using our thinking machines. OK. You first, then.
- thedudeabides5 7y ago
  Well, I'm lighting kharma on fire to educate you @spats1990, so at least I'm trying. Here's the timeline. Nov 17 - First known case of coronavirus https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.htm... January 3 - Whistleblower Dr Li thrown in jail "Li warned colleagues on social media in late December about a mysterious virus that would become the coronavirus epidemic and was detained by police in Wuhan on 3 January for “spreading false rumours”. He was forced to sign a police document to admit he had breached the law and had “seriously disrupted social order.” https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/coronavirus-chinese-rage-death-whistleblower-doctor-li-wenliang https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/c... Jan 18 - Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck. (Hosted by the Mayor of Wuhan) Jan 23 - Wuhan put on lockdown https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coro... The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively – significantly limiting the geographical spread of the disease https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.pa... Looks like a couple months to me.
  - spats1990 7y ago
    OK so your original post was premised on there not being massive mobilised response to less than ~250 cases in a city of 11 million by mid-december. It's nice to have the benefit of hindsight. Thanks for the response and links, but I basically regret this entire interaction and would rather leave the discussion here.
  - baud147258 7y ago
    > Jan 18 - Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck. (Hosted by the Mayor of Wuhan) > Jan 23 - Wuhan put on lockdown It reminds me of France: March 15: French municipal elections (in all French cities) March 16: General lockdown announced

spats1990 7y ago

>grew unchecked or for months It really didn't "grow unchecked for months". >using our thinking machines. OK. You first, then.

thedudeabides5 7y ago
Well, I'm lighting kharma on fire to educate you @spats1990, so at least I'm trying. Here's the timeline. Nov 17 - First known case of coronavirus https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html https://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.htm... January 3 - Whistleblower Dr Li thrown in jail "Li warned colleagues on social media in late December about a mysterious virus that would become the coronavirus epidemic and was detained by police in Wuhan on 3 January for “spreading false rumours”. He was forced to sign a police document to admit he had breached the law and had “seriously disrupted social order.” https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/coronavirus-chinese-rage-death-whistleblower-doctor-li-wenliang https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2020/feb/07/c... Jan 18 - Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck. (Hosted by the Mayor of Wuhan) Jan 23 - Wuhan put on lockdown https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coronavirus-outbreak-and-cover-up-ee65211a-afb6-4641-97b8-353718a5faab.html https://www.axios.com/timeline-the-early-days-of-chinas-coro... The research also found that if interventions in the country could have been conducted one week, two weeks, or three weeks earlier, cases could have been reduced by 66 percent, 86 percent and 95 percent respectively – significantly limiting the geographical spread of the disease https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.page https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020/03/covid-19-china.pa... Looks like a couple months to me.
- spats1990 7y ago
  OK so your original post was premised on there not being massive mobilised response to less than ~250 cases in a city of 11 million by mid-december. It's nice to have the benefit of hindsight. Thanks for the response and links, but I basically regret this entire interaction and would rather leave the discussion here.
- baud147258 7y ago
  > Jan 18 - Annual Wuhan Lunar New Year banquet. Tens of thousands of people gathered for a potluck. (Hosted by the Mayor of Wuhan) > Jan 23 - Wuhan put on lockdown It reminds me of France: March 15: French municipal elections (in all French cities) March 16: General lockdown announced