4 ms·

Depends on whether you flatten out the growth rate. It won't/can't keep growing like that when everyone is sheltering in place.

by grej 7y ago

Polylactic_acid 7y ago
Seems likely. Italy is currently seeing a 13% increase per day while the US is now very close to a 50% increase per day. There are news reports showing beaches and bars in the US are still fully packed. It probably relates the US culture of disregarding expert advice and doing the opposite to "own the scientists"
- nathanlied 7y ago
  It's not just the US. This happened across countries in Europe as well; Italy had it happen, Germany had "Coronavirus Parties", even. It happens because some people are idiots, and others aren't quite aware of how serious the situation is. Once reality sets in, only the absolute idiots that don't care for being socially ostracized (or in some cases even legal consequences) will continue that behaviour. And luckily those are normally a minority.
- loeg 7y ago
  The US federal government isn't actually doing much at the top level. Individual states are shutting down at variable times and rates. The beaches and bars are mostly in these slow-moving states.
  - gwright 7y ago
    That is because that is how our system of executive administration is designed. It is a federal system with the vast, vast majority of police powers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_constitutional_law) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_co... residing in the state, not federal authorities.
    - loeg 7y ago
      In ordinary times, yes, the US is a federal system of states with some level of individual state rights. But state power has somewhat eroded over time; federal supremacy is a thing; and there is plenty of precedent for the Fed stepping in during emergencies and war. (And war is a relevant point of comparison because even if this thing goes as well as possible at this point, it's likely going to kill more Americans than any foreign war and probably more than the civil war.) No, the reason the top level federal government isn't doing much is because Trump is an incompetent idiot who doesn't have a second brain cell to rub against the first. The federal government has the funds and the coordinating agencies (FEMA, CDC, military and national guard) and could be buying masks, ventilators, tests; solving distribution problems; coordinating with states on social distancing and even lockdown/shelter-in-place policy. They did nothing during the early weeks when they knew it was a coming problem and it is not clear how much Pence is doing now.
      - gwright 7y ago
        As a matter of law the federal government controls the international borders and inter-state boarders. It is up to the state governments to limit movement within their borders. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantin... As it so happens, President trump has been limiting international travel starting all the way back in January. Why do you think the federal government isn't "doing much" (https://www.usa.gov/coronavirus https://www.usa.gov/coronavirus)? And what exactly would you have it do that you don't think it is doing?
- speedgoose 7y ago
  People stop very fast when people they know start to get sick and die.
  - Findeton 7y ago
    When that happens, it's too late. Between the incubation period and the time to death it's about three weeks. At a 20% increase per day that means that even if you stop going out at that moment deaths will be multiplied by 46. If the rate is 30%, the multiplier is 247.
    - btilly 7y ago
      Not quite that bad. Current measured growth rates are closer to 15% per day (5 day doubling time). And people's behavior changes not when people die, but when people get sick. Which happens (depending on your sensitivity) only 1-2 weeks after exposure. But the basic principle still applies. We are trying to buy as much time as we can to ramp up emergency provisions. And are trying to avoid overwhelming emergency rooms. By the time people's behavior modifies through direct experience, it is too late. Making this concrete I live in Orange County, CA. Population, 3.3 million. Hospital beds, 6600 (source https://www.hasc.org/orange-county https://www.hasc.org/orange-county). I don't know how many ICU beds, but https://www.accjournal.org/journal/view.php?number=630 https://www.accjournal.org/journal/view.php?number=630 suggests it likely is about 6% of the total. So about 400ish. Now walk that backwards. 400 people in ICU beds probably means 4000 people with symptoms means less than 0.1% of the population with COVID. Except that it is worse than that. We have those beds for normal stuff that goes wrong. They aren't actually empty now. Long story short, we start piling up excess dead bodies due to lack of capacity long before most of us personally know anyone who actually shows symptoms.
      - acqq 7y ago
        > Current measured growth rates are closer to 15% per day (5 day doubling time) Citation needed. In the US, via Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... 2020-03-17 5656 infected 96 dead 2020-03-19 11980 infected 172 dead That's doubling time of 2 days, not 5. When was it 5 days the last time? If that 2 days continues, in two weeks: 1.5 million infected, 22000 dead. Also, the data across the world show only: the typical doubling time once it really starts going is 3 days, never 5, at least without the beneficial contribution of lockdowns: Italy dead: 2020-03-16 1809 2020-03-19 3405 It's 3 days doubling time there, and they started to quarantine municipalities since February 22, and locked down the whole country on March 10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... Netherlands dead: 2020-03-16 24 2020-03-19 76 Doubling time faster than 3 days there. Not much of measures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... So "the risky hack" this article is about buys one not more than 3 days under the circumstances. Speed of deaths is a good indicator because the number of those who die and those who need an intensive care unit are very close. A lot of countries aren't able to test as much as it would be needed, so the number of "verified cases" which have less serious symptoms tends to be lower than the actual numbers. But those who die and could have been exposed to the virus and have matching symptoms are more consistently tested. Main point: the US data can't be considered in vacuum, we know much more than US was able to test due to their botched procedures. But across the world, it's nowhere 5 days, as soon as the number of dead is more than a single digit.
- notyourday 7y ago
  I have said this before I will say it again: people in 2020 are visual learners. There needs to be a boat load of citizen journalists posting videos with dying people and sick people on IG/Twitter/TikTok/Tinder/etc for behavior to change. Hash tagging #coronavirus #wfh on a photo of a table full of food and 65" TV with Netflix makes it sound like a party.

Depends on whether you flatten out the growth rate. It won't/can't keep growing like that when everyone is sheltering in place.

by grej 7y ago

Depends on whether you flatten out the growth rate. It won't/can't keep growing like that when everyone is sheltering in place.

Polylactic_acid 7y ago

Seems likely. Italy is currently seeing a 13% increase per day while the US is now very close to a 50% increase per day. There are news reports showing beaches and bars in the US are still fully packed. It probably relates the US culture of disregarding expert advice and doing the opposite to "own the scientists"

nathanlied 7y ago
It's not just the US. This happened across countries in Europe as well; Italy had it happen, Germany had "Coronavirus Parties", even. It happens because some people are idiots, and others aren't quite aware of how serious the situation is. Once reality sets in, only the absolute idiots that don't care for being socially ostracized (or in some cases even legal consequences) will continue that behaviour. And luckily those are normally a minority.
loeg 7y ago
The US federal government isn't actually doing much at the top level. Individual states are shutting down at variable times and rates. The beaches and bars are mostly in these slow-moving states.
- gwright 7y ago
  That is because that is how our system of executive administration is designed. It is a federal system with the vast, vast majority of police powers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_constitutional_law) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Police_power_(United_States_co... residing in the state, not federal authorities.
  - loeg 7y ago
    In ordinary times, yes, the US is a federal system of states with some level of individual state rights. But state power has somewhat eroded over time; federal supremacy is a thing; and there is plenty of precedent for the Fed stepping in during emergencies and war. (And war is a relevant point of comparison because even if this thing goes as well as possible at this point, it's likely going to kill more Americans than any foreign war and probably more than the civil war.) No, the reason the top level federal government isn't doing much is because Trump is an incompetent idiot who doesn't have a second brain cell to rub against the first. The federal government has the funds and the coordinating agencies (FEMA, CDC, military and national guard) and could be buying masks, ventilators, tests; solving distribution problems; coordinating with states on social distancing and even lockdown/shelter-in-place policy. They did nothing during the early weeks when they knew it was a coming problem and it is not clear how much Pence is doing now.
    - gwright 7y ago
      As a matter of law the federal government controls the international borders and inter-state boarders. It is up to the state governments to limit movement within their borders. https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantineisolation.html https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/aboutlawsregulationsquarantin... As it so happens, President trump has been limiting international travel starting all the way back in January. Why do you think the federal government isn't "doing much" (https://www.usa.gov/coronavirus https://www.usa.gov/coronavirus)? And what exactly would you have it do that you don't think it is doing?
speedgoose 7y ago
People stop very fast when people they know start to get sick and die.
- Findeton 7y ago
  When that happens, it's too late. Between the incubation period and the time to death it's about three weeks. At a 20% increase per day that means that even if you stop going out at that moment deaths will be multiplied by 46. If the rate is 30%, the multiplier is 247.
  - btilly 7y ago
    Not quite that bad. Current measured growth rates are closer to 15% per day (5 day doubling time). And people's behavior changes not when people die, but when people get sick. Which happens (depending on your sensitivity) only 1-2 weeks after exposure. But the basic principle still applies. We are trying to buy as much time as we can to ramp up emergency provisions. And are trying to avoid overwhelming emergency rooms. By the time people's behavior modifies through direct experience, it is too late. Making this concrete I live in Orange County, CA. Population, 3.3 million. Hospital beds, 6600 (source https://www.hasc.org/orange-county https://www.hasc.org/orange-county). I don't know how many ICU beds, but https://www.accjournal.org/journal/view.php?number=630 https://www.accjournal.org/journal/view.php?number=630 suggests it likely is about 6% of the total. So about 400ish. Now walk that backwards. 400 people in ICU beds probably means 4000 people with symptoms means less than 0.1% of the population with COVID. Except that it is worse than that. We have those beds for normal stuff that goes wrong. They aren't actually empty now. Long story short, we start piling up excess dead bodies due to lack of capacity long before most of us personally know anyone who actually shows symptoms.
    - acqq 7y ago
      > Current measured growth rates are closer to 15% per day (5 day doubling time) Citation needed. In the US, via Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... 2020-03-17 5656 infected 96 dead 2020-03-19 11980 infected 172 dead That's doubling time of 2 days, not 5. When was it 5 days the last time? If that 2 days continues, in two weeks: 1.5 million infected, 22000 dead. Also, the data across the world show only: the typical doubling time once it really starts going is 3 days, never 5, at least without the beneficial contribution of lockdowns: Italy dead: 2020-03-16 1809 2020-03-19 3405 It's 3 days doubling time there, and they started to quarantine municipalities since February 22, and locked down the whole country on March 10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_I... Netherlands dead: 2020-03-16 24 2020-03-19 76 Doubling time faster than 3 days there. Not much of measures. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_Netherlands https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... So "the risky hack" this article is about buys one not more than 3 days under the circumstances. Speed of deaths is a good indicator because the number of those who die and those who need an intensive care unit are very close. A lot of countries aren't able to test as much as it would be needed, so the number of "verified cases" which have less serious symptoms tends to be lower than the actual numbers. But those who die and could have been exposed to the virus and have matching symptoms are more consistently tested. Main point: the US data can't be considered in vacuum, we know much more than US was able to test due to their botched procedures. But across the world, it's nowhere 5 days, as soon as the number of dead is more than a single digit.
notyourday 7y ago
I have said this before I will say it again: people in 2020 are visual learners. There needs to be a boat load of citizen journalists posting videos with dying people and sick people on IG/Twitter/TikTok/Tinder/etc for behavior to change. Hash tagging #coronavirus #wfh on a photo of a table full of food and 65" TV with Netflix makes it sound like a party.