I think you underestimate the length of the flu season and the numbers for COVID-19 are therefore much worse. At least 4 months, but really 5 with one of them m

I think you underestimate the length of the flu season and the numbers for COVID-19 are therefore much worse. At least 4 months, but really 5 with one of them more mild so 4.5 months for the flu season. Also we should use the average year since harsh flu years have been newsworthy tragedies in their own right. So 111 per day in all Italy. Lombardia is about 16.3% of the population (wikipedia.it), and has about 50% of the deaths (repubblica.it). So it is roughly 235/16.3 , or 13x worse (edit: number changed because Italian flu average is only 8000 per official source below), so roughly (235/9.65) 24x more than flu once healthcare is overrrun by my best estimate. However flu does not overwhelm ICU and there are tangential deaths from lack of available healthcare which might double these numbers. Who knows, but it not going to be insignificant at all. edit: In fact I see Italy counts flu season from October to February inclusive, so I think my estimate is correct. https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalita-influenza https://www.epicentro.iss.it/influenza/sorveglianza-mortalit...