You can't have it both ways. Either 1) There are 10x (or 40x if you think) more cases out there and this is less dangerous than the flu or 2) There are 1x the

You can't have it both ways. Either 1) There are 10x (or 40x if you think) more cases out there and this is less dangerous than the flu or 2) There are 1x the cases out there and the transmission rate is what it is. Bayesian stats is leaning towards 1) right now, and has been for a while given the evidence from SK and the cruise ship. However, when lives are at stake, it's incredibly important to err on the safe side until you're sure. In other words, be willing to lose $1 million dollars rather than lose 1 life (just throwing numbers out there). But at some point, the greatest western economy crashing will lead to more loss of life than the flu. Let's just be sure 1st that it is just a bad flu and not potentially something worse. Another critical reason for death rates to vary so much per country: Death rate is very dependent on quality and access to care.