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I'm not trying to throw a ton of water on this, but this is a political document. Is it possible that they've put out this large number to justify their heavy h
by partiallypro 7y ago
I'm not trying to throw a ton of water on this, but this is a political document. Is it possible that they've put out this large number to justify their heavy handed response when it falls well short of that? Because people, once the economic impact if fully felt, are going to want a justification for their sacrifice.
- rectang 7y agoTake a look at the graphs on this page, particularly "World, Confirmed Cases" and "US States, Confirmed Cases Per Million Inhabitants": http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/ We are not near an inflection point yet.
- forkexec 7y agoThere are several factors to consider: - Temporary measures, once cancelled, will steepen the curve and recreate rapid community spread conditions. This will lead to a number of cycles of pandemic curves and responses as modeled in a number of papers. - There is insufficient testing in the US to know what's actually happening, or even if serious or critical ILI patients have it. - The JHU data shows March 20 suddenly leveled off, but this seems like a single, erroneous aberration since that day hasn't finished yet as of writing. [0] - Until there is a safe and effective vaccine proven to work, there's no realistic alternative except to isolate and not venture out more than absolutely necessary, in small numbers. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594...
- cheerlessbog 7y agoGreat link thank you - it looks like if the US follows China, is it nearly two months from the peak, with Washington state about 10 days closer. If China is even comparable. We will know more when Italy reaches its peak.