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My back of the napkin math indicates that roughly 2x as many people will die in the US this year. Normal deaths are 2.8M/year. There's 330M people in the US.
by NotAnEconomist 7y ago
My back of the napkin math indicates that roughly 2x as many people will die in the US this year.
Normal deaths are 2.8M/year.
There's 330M people in the US. At 70% infection, that's 230M people. At 1% mortality, that's 2.3M excess deaths.
That's 80% of the normal deaths for a year; and since other causes of death haven't stopped... we get 180% for the year, or "twice as many".
- jameslevy 7y agoPerhaps within the next five years we will see the number of deaths decline, as a pandemic results in people who would die in the next few years instead die earlier.
- Drunk_Engineer 7y agoMost coronavirus victims were already in poor health. So your analysis is double-counting.
- beaunative 7y agoTBH, it's impossible to 'not double-counting'. We don't live in math.