3 ms·
(not not an epidemiologist, just interested) Once testing becomes widespread enough that it's feasible to test a lot more people it's quite plausible to relax
by anarazel 7y ago
(not not an epidemiologist, just interested)
Once testing becomes widespread enough that it's feasible to test a lot more people it's quite plausible to relax the restrictions. One big problem before the recent "shelter in place" state is that community transmission by asymptomatic people was/is out of control.
If only strongly symptomatic people are "allowed" to be tested and health care professions aren't tested, it's basically impossible to restrict spread of something as infectious as covid-19. And once people with a lot of contacts have it, and stay in contact, further spread will obviously accelerate.
If you look at the buildup of test capacity in the US (far far to late obviously), it's improving at a decent rate (from a totally embarrassing starting point):
https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
(there's a lot of differening sources, several lagging, but the trend is similar afaictl)
So there finally does appear to be some serious and successful effort in building up test capacity. Testing everyone in the US seems far off still though.
Given the rates of hospitalization and available beds / respirators, it'd however be insane to rely on testing at this point. Spread would be far too fast, and there's obviously not enough testing.
But if infections slow down due to the isolation, and testing ramps up at the same time...
- jacobolus 7y agoIn particular, if we have serological tests we can find out who has had the disease with no symptoms or mild symptoms. Anyone who has had the disease and recovered can afterward go about their life again, as they cannot (for at least a few months, if not longer) be reinfected or spread the disease.
- chanchar 7y agoHave there been any studies on if the virus can mutate?
- selectodude 7y agoIt mutated its way from affecting bats to affecting people. Fortunately, the vast, vast majority of mutations either do nothing or make things actively worse. https://qbrc.swmed.edu/projects/2019ncov_immuneviewer/ https://qbrc.swmed.edu/projects/2019ncov_immuneviewer/ That's the chain of mutations for SARS-Cov-2 they've seen so far.
- Animats 7y agoRight. Unless you can get this twice in a short period, someone who tests negative for the virus and positive for the antibodies on an ELIZA-type test has had the disease and is over it, even if they never knew they had it. Once testing for that is going, those people get a green card with a QR code and can move around freely. China is doing that.[1] [1] https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-20/China-leverages-technology-in-its-fight-against-COVID-19-OeTjYhRz5m/index.html https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-02-20/China-leverages-techno...