5 ms·
At the risk of beating a dead horse, are the numbers coming out of China trustworthy? We know for a fact there were some early suppression of the outbreak, so
by Karunamon 7y ago
At the risk of beating a dead horse, are the numbers coming out of China trustworthy?
We know for a fact there were some early suppression of the outbreak, so it wouldn't be too much to speculate that they're under-reporting new cases and/or over-reporting recoveries.
Even if so, there's the problem that totalitarian, high-control societies like China have tools to deal with these kinds of problems that other societies do not.. to put it lightly.
- kart23 7y agoThe fact that we know there was suppression means they aren't very good at it.
- dredmorbius 7y agoThe generally seem to be, especially corroberated by other experience: - HK, SG, KR, and JP have similar trends. - No "patriotic virus" -- infecting Chinese only after leaving China. - Limited spread / impacts outside Hubei. - Lifting quarantine. Testing numbers are all but certainly low, but given shitshows elsewhere (IT, US, PH, DE, ES, likely IN and others), due to logistics and limitations. Comprehensive population antibody testing should be interesting.
- tanilama 7y agoCases in Hubei is likely under reported, but this is probably more attributed to early test kit shortages and the fact to ramp up test requires time, etc. We have see the same thing in Italy and other European countries as well, the capacity is limited and testing itself is biased not aiming for coverage. But what China's data can tell, is that there is a strategy out there to contain the virus, if implemented. And it takes about 2 months of total lockdown. It is probably the most effective containment in human history, but with a cost. So the exact number of China's data isn't going to be meaningful to others, but the actions taken have implications and we should follow.