4 ms·

you're right, testing is the long term solution. you can't control what you can't measure. the embarrassing point is that in the US, isolation is the only effe

you're right, testing is the long term solution. you can't control what you can't measure. the embarrassing point is that in the US, isolation is the only effective tool at this point. it's embarrassing because ramping up testing was what South Korea did, and they started much sooner, and that's why they are over the hump now. the US simply doesn't have the testing scaled up. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin...

pwned1 7y ago
Testing is rising extremely quickly in the US. Over 27,000 in the last 24 hours: https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/
- m0zg 7y ago
  IMO it's a mistake to bring it up so quickly. Most people (and especially those downvoting this post :-) aren't very bright even under the normal circumstances, let alone in a full blown panic, they'll think that this is how many infections we're getting, whereas in fact those infections were already out there, we just couldn't confirm them. Some will conclude (likely incorrectly) that the current distancing measurements aren't doing jack shit.
  - whatshisface 7y ago
    Sure, so the solution to idiots misinterpreting the data is that we need to make it impossible for experts to record the data. /s
  - dublinben 7y ago
    It sounds like we should be doing more education, rather than less testing.
  - luke0016 7y ago
    What's the alternative? Wallow in ignorance some more? I prefer to know what's actually going on.
- MiroF 7y ago
  What's interesting is that the rate of negative results seems to be roughly constant. I would expect that with an expansion of testing we would see many more negative results as a proportion (if we were allocating tests early only to the most likely cases and are now expanding the reach of testing)
  - deelowe 7y ago
    My guess is that we're still short on tests, so only people who most likely have the virus are getting tested.
- cwojno 7y ago
  Pence promised 4 million last week. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/millions-of-coronavirus-test-kits-available-soon-pence-says-as-us-cases-top-700 https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/...
  - pwned1 7y ago
    There's a difference between distributed and utilized. Is that confusing?
    - objectivetruth 7y ago
      No. Is it confusing to you that the parent was pointing out a multiple-order-of-magnitude difference in what the US gov promised vs. what the US gov delivered? Is it confusing to you that a "distributed test" sitting in a closet is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine? And that "utilized" tests are the key metric that we care about? Sorry to be a jerk but I think your "Is that confusing?" snark was pretty crappy.
hkmurakami 7y ago
The US neither (1) didn't take it seriously enough, and (2) CDC's initial test kits didn't work properly. Korea and other nations in the area took it seriously due to their proximity to China and previous recent experience with infectious disease: HK experienced SARS, Korea experienced MERS.
- senderista 7y ago
  The US could have used the WHO test in the meantime.
  - m0zg 7y ago
    I've read that it couldn't. Those kits were never offered to the US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/who-coronavirus-tests-cdc/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/who-coronavirus-tests-...
    - officialjunk 7y ago
      couldn't? sounds like the US didn't even try asking. the article says: "No discussions occurred between WHO and the CDC about providing tests to the United States" and "US chose to design its own coronavirus test"
- BurningFrog 7y ago
  CDC and/or FDA also banned everyone in the country from doing tests themselves.
  - BoiledCabbage 7y ago
    And more importantly, the Administration never stepped in to fix it no matter how obvious a problem it was causing. It took them ages to have the FDA make an emergency exception to allow private testing.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
wy3yebdudu 7y ago
Not really that embarrassing considering how big the US is, it's about as embarrassing as when European countries brag about their choice metrics.
rhino369 7y ago
Testing is only part of it. Korea never mass tested the population at large. They traced the chains of the infections and quarantined everyone until they were tested clean. They found new chains through sick people who were tested. Without investigation and tracing the chain of infections, you can't contain it through testing alone. And the fact that were was an undetected outbreak in the west coast of the United States for several weeks probably made containment impossible, even using the South Korean model.
- therealdrag0 7y ago
  Yep. I keep seeing people saying Korea tested everyone, but they only tested ~0.5% of their population.
  - surewhynat 7y ago
    I think they mean they tested "everyone they could"

pwned1 7y ago

Testing is rising extremely quickly in the US. Over 27,000 in the last 24 hours: https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/ https://covidtracking.com/us-daily/

m0zg 7y ago
IMO it's a mistake to bring it up so quickly. Most people (and especially those downvoting this post :-) aren't very bright even under the normal circumstances, let alone in a full blown panic, they'll think that this is how many infections we're getting, whereas in fact those infections were already out there, we just couldn't confirm them. Some will conclude (likely incorrectly) that the current distancing measurements aren't doing jack shit.
- whatshisface 7y ago
  Sure, so the solution to idiots misinterpreting the data is that we need to make it impossible for experts to record the data. /s
- dublinben 7y ago
  It sounds like we should be doing more education, rather than less testing.
- luke0016 7y ago
  What's the alternative? Wallow in ignorance some more? I prefer to know what's actually going on.
MiroF 7y ago
What's interesting is that the rate of negative results seems to be roughly constant. I would expect that with an expansion of testing we would see many more negative results as a proportion (if we were allocating tests early only to the most likely cases and are now expanding the reach of testing)
- deelowe 7y ago
  My guess is that we're still short on tests, so only people who most likely have the virus are getting tested.
cwojno 7y ago
Pence promised 4 million last week. https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/millions-of-coronavirus-test-kits-available-soon-pence-says-as-us-cases-top-700 https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-03-10/...
- pwned1 7y ago
  There's a difference between distributed and utilized. Is that confusing?
  - objectivetruth 7y ago
    No. Is it confusing to you that the parent was pointing out a multiple-order-of-magnitude difference in what the US gov promised vs. what the US gov delivered? Is it confusing to you that a "distributed test" sitting in a closet is about as useful as a screen door on a submarine? And that "utilized" tests are the key metric that we care about? Sorry to be a jerk but I think your "Is that confusing?" snark was pretty crappy.

hkmurakami 7y ago

The US neither (1) didn't take it seriously enough, and (2) CDC's initial test kits didn't work properly. Korea and other nations in the area took it seriously due to their proximity to China and previous recent experience with infectious disease: HK experienced SARS, Korea experienced MERS.

senderista 7y ago
The US could have used the WHO test in the meantime.
- m0zg 7y ago
  I've read that it couldn't. Those kits were never offered to the US: https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/who-coronavirus-tests-cdc/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/18/health/who-coronavirus-tests-...
  - officialjunk 7y ago
    couldn't? sounds like the US didn't even try asking. the article says: "No discussions occurred between WHO and the CDC about providing tests to the United States" and "US chose to design its own coronavirus test"
BurningFrog 7y ago
CDC and/or FDA also banned everyone in the country from doing tests themselves.
- BoiledCabbage 7y ago
  And more importantly, the Administration never stepped in to fix it no matter how obvious a problem it was causing. It took them ages to have the FDA make an emergency exception to allow private testing.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

wy3yebdudu 7y ago

Not really that embarrassing considering how big the US is, it's about as embarrassing as when European countries brag about their choice metrics.

rhino369 7y ago

Testing is only part of it. Korea never mass tested the population at large. They traced the chains of the infections and quarantined everyone until they were tested clean. They found new chains through sick people who were tested. Without investigation and tracing the chain of infections, you can't contain it through testing alone. And the fact that were was an undetected outbreak in the west coast of the United States for several weeks probably made containment impossible, even using the South Korean model.

therealdrag0 7y ago
Yep. I keep seeing people saying Korea tested everyone, but they only tested ~0.5% of their population.
- surewhynat 7y ago
  I think they mean they tested "everyone they could"