7 ms·

This is fine for people like me that can work from home, no problem. But most of my neighbors are freaking out because they are not getting paid and have no way

This is fine for people like me that can work from home, no problem. But most of my neighbors are freaking out because they are not getting paid and have no way to pay bills, rent, etc. I can't see how this will not end up as the most major worldwide depression ever.

all_blue_chucks 7y ago
This will be the fastest economic decline ever (by fiat!) but not the longest. One way or another it will be over in a couple years max. Perhaps much sooner if we develop an effective vaccination, treatment, or tracking program.
billions 7y ago
It's likely more people will die from economic hardship than the virus
- wbl 7y ago
  There is no reason we can't ensure they have food and a house for the duration.
  - irrational 7y ago
    There is no reason we can't. But we won't. Rather, politicians will almost surely choose not to do anything until it is far too late.
    - hkmurakami 7y ago
      They literally passed a stimulus bill in the Senate this week with $500B for individuals. It heads to the House now.
      - irrational 7y ago
        I’ve been avoiding the news. How much will each American get? Will it be per individual, or only adults? Will people with children get more? Will it be more for more children? How many months worth of expenses should it cover?
        hkmurakami 7y ago
        $1200/person, $500 per child with phase out. https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-third-coronavirus-measure-11584622892?emailToken=590c16418d651af9b1f985d62541a87flwHoiScAdx79LWlbpFr5VYOC+0e3+9GA+JOwEFGRC/bNw+wdhqWDvM+DIuiBSnX+UTHZh7q2gdwB/9Ss3dG0dfY6EknTwFKm1lCfJSN43NGQA3GTYawPFN0+hIKna8gr&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-thir... There's a good chance the house will revise aid for individuals upwards
        sfkdjf9j3j 7y ago
        It's a maximum of $1,200 per individual plus an additional $500 per child. The amount is based on your 2018 AGI. The amount you receive begins to decrease at $75,000 and if you made more than $99,000 in 2018 you don't receive any money. This is also not just the government cutting a check, it's a rebate from your 2018 taxes. You won't get back more than you paid in taxes, unless you're part of a carve out meant to protect low income seniors, which still requires a minimum income of $2,500 in 2018 (including social security). So it's something of a mixed bag. It won't help the truly destitute, and it won't help people who had a good year in 2018 but recently lost their job due to the virus (though those should qualify for unemployment benefits). The means testing is also not normalized by any kind of cost of living metric, so people in low cost of living areas will probably qualify disproportionately, even though the areas worst affected by the virus directly are urban, high cost of living.
    - nexuist 7y ago
      California is one of the most liberal states in the country, isn't this the perfect time to enact some of those "socialist" policies to ensure people stuck at home get the supplies they need? Forget about federal leadership, there's still a whole state government with agencies and employees ready to act. This is the time to show the rest of the country how to do it properly.
  - big_chungus 7y ago
    In a big enough depression, even "the one percent" might not produce enough to cover that sort of expense. Where else where you go? This has a global reach, so you can't really borrow from the next country over. Can't really sell bonds to Americans, because that reduces liquidity further. Inflate and you'll kill what savings Americans have left and risk stagflation. So, how do you pay for it? Forget taxing certain people more or less, past a certain point, the money simply doesn't exist; there's no bottomless pit of money on which the gov't can draw in a second great depression.
    - wbl 7y ago
      The food exists the houses exist.
    - scotty79 7y ago
      I think about 70% of economy just serves the boredom of people with disposable income. We have plenty of capacity to provide essentials for everybody.
  - casefields 7y ago
    This is Mao-esqe nonsense. You can't turn off the economy the imagine government is going to divvy up whatever stuff needs dispersing. The Soviet Union tried that.
    - wbl 7y ago
      Remember the War?
      - inferiorhuman 7y ago
        Remember the massive inflation in the 70s? We survived.
    - mirimir 7y ago
      Yeah, but they had crappy information management.
hkmurakami 7y ago
Hence they're trying to hand out cash to people (means tested), reduce our delay taxes, etc. Other countries have enacted similar measures.
- thereare5lights 7y ago
  Unfortunately, most of the bills thus far are means tested which means inevitably, people will fall through the cracks.
- JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
  $1000 for a month isn't quite enough to keep the lights on for middle class families living paycheck to paycheck.
  - SauciestGNU 7y ago
    Hopefully in addition to monetary grants there will also be suspension of rent, mortgage, utility, and student loan repayments while this is ongoing.
    - joe-collins 7y ago
      Suspension of rents seems like one of the biggest things I see missing across the board. Suspended mortgages are great... for those wealthy enough not to be renting. $1k/adult will cover rent for many couples outside of tech hotspots, but it won't go a lot farther, and that doesn't begin to address singles.
      - ed312 7y ago
        A significant percent, (I want to say most, but I don't have the numbers), of rental properties are covered by mortgages or other financing. "Pausing" mortgages can be done in a fairly centralized manner. Pausing rent is almost impossible because everyone has an individual contract and there isn't a central clearing house. It's a hard problem.
codeisawesome 7y ago
That's downright frightening to imagine - much more even than the infection itself. For all of the zombie apocalypse movies, books & video games we have seen - our world & economy is just not prepared to operate like this..
ryanmccullagh 7y ago
Exactly. Programmers and other tech people can work remote all day. But what about truck drivers, service industry workers, hair dressers, and more? People like this Twitter [0] use seem to suggest a shut down wouldn't have any negative effects because they can work from home. [0] https://twitter.com/kvlly/status/1240819015095930880 https://twitter.com/kvlly/status/1240819015095930880
- juliansimioni 7y ago
  There's nothing in that tweet or the thread its a part of that suggests the authors don't understand the seriousness of asking for a shut down. It also doesn't suggest they wouldn't support exceptions for all the hardworking people who can't work remotely. So why link to it? Even if it wasn't your intention, it seems like the primary effect would be to direct abuse towards the author of the linked tweet.
  - ryanmccullagh 7y ago
    Does it suggest they're aware of the consequences though? Not suggesting that they don't understand seriousness of asking for a shut down doesn't suggest that they do. The "seriousness" of a shut-down shouldn't be silenced.
    - juliansimioni 7y ago
      Sure, if you want to go around the internet complaining that people didn't explicitly say they were aware of something they didn't happen to mention, go for it. I think you'll find that unfulfilling. If you want to help remind people of the seriousness of a shutdown and how many people couldn't abide by one without society crumbling, then do that directly. Don't attack other people who probably don't even disagree with you to try to bolster your point.
- usaar333 7y ago
  A lot of those jobs are exempted as essential workers. Even residential housing construction workers are exempted.
twblalock 7y ago
The money they are proposing won't cover a single month of rent in California.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Rent and mortgage moratoria, and eviction bans, are also active initiatives. Several already imposed, more proposed, regionally andnationally.
  - omar_a1 7y ago
    That's the silver lining here. With sheriffs and legislators not enforcing evictions, we can pretty much squat in our apartments until the situation changes if rent money completely dries up. The landlords are out-numbered by the tenants and can't reasonably expect to find another tenant while on lockdown. The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied.
    - UncleEntity 7y ago
      > The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied. Or...they'll just resign themselves to "we're all in this together" and accept they will have to suffer a bit too.
      - omar_a1 7y ago
        I just can't imagine an SF landlord passively resigning themselves to not getting paid rent, apocalypse or not.
        UncleEntity 7y ago
        Why not? I was just reading about Arizona evictions (for, umm, a friend) and it seems the courts are just not going to serve any notices for the foreseeable future so they can't really do anything about it no matter how they feel. Things will get sorted out, landlords will get a bailout, everyone will be happy.
fsh 7y ago
The worst ever depression is a gross exaggeration in any imaginable case. During the world wars, most of the earth essentially devoted all of its resources trying to kill each other for years. How is some people not going to work for a few months going to be nearly that bad?
- xenospn 7y ago
  People were getting paid to try and kill the other side.
  - fsh 7y ago
    So how about paying them without the killing?
    - omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
      Exactly. This is what unemployment is for.
  - __s 7y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window
rcpt 7y ago
Workers aren't allowed to work but landlords are still allowed to collect rent.
- root_axis 7y ago
  Keep looking up stream. The landlords have to pay property taxes and often their own mortgages on personal or commercial properties. Anyone with a balloon mortgage is probably feeling very anxious about now. The rental market is big business and many thousands of rental communities around the country are operated by corporations capitalized through big bank creditors with the power to unmake poor performers; if prospects of collecting rent look grim investment capital will dry up and these companies will be facing bankruptcy. It's times like these when you really need a good leader that's empowered to act but also capable of seeing the big picture.

all_blue_chucks 7y ago

This will be the fastest economic decline ever (by fiat!) but not the longest. One way or another it will be over in a couple years max. Perhaps much sooner if we develop an effective vaccination, treatment, or tracking program.

billions 7y ago

It's likely more people will die from economic hardship than the virus

wbl 7y ago
There is no reason we can't ensure they have food and a house for the duration.
- irrational 7y ago
  There is no reason we can't. But we won't. Rather, politicians will almost surely choose not to do anything until it is far too late.
  - hkmurakami 7y ago
    They literally passed a stimulus bill in the Senate this week with $500B for individuals. It heads to the House now.
    - irrational 7y ago
      I’ve been avoiding the news. How much will each American get? Will it be per individual, or only adults? Will people with children get more? Will it be more for more children? How many months worth of expenses should it cover?
      - hkmurakami 7y ago
        $1200/person, $500 per child with phase out. https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-third-coronavirus-measure-11584622892?emailToken=590c16418d651af9b1f985d62541a87flwHoiScAdx79LWlbpFr5VYOC+0e3+9GA+JOwEFGRC/bNw+wdhqWDvM+DIuiBSnX+UTHZh7q2gdwB/9Ss3dG0dfY6EknTwFKm1lCfJSN43NGQA3GTYawPFN0+hIKna8gr&reflink=article_copyURL_share https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-republicans-prepare-thir... There's a good chance the house will revise aid for individuals upwards
      - sfkdjf9j3j 7y ago
        It's a maximum of $1,200 per individual plus an additional $500 per child. The amount is based on your 2018 AGI. The amount you receive begins to decrease at $75,000 and if you made more than $99,000 in 2018 you don't receive any money. This is also not just the government cutting a check, it's a rebate from your 2018 taxes. You won't get back more than you paid in taxes, unless you're part of a carve out meant to protect low income seniors, which still requires a minimum income of $2,500 in 2018 (including social security). So it's something of a mixed bag. It won't help the truly destitute, and it won't help people who had a good year in 2018 but recently lost their job due to the virus (though those should qualify for unemployment benefits). The means testing is also not normalized by any kind of cost of living metric, so people in low cost of living areas will probably qualify disproportionately, even though the areas worst affected by the virus directly are urban, high cost of living.
  - nexuist 7y ago
    California is one of the most liberal states in the country, isn't this the perfect time to enact some of those "socialist" policies to ensure people stuck at home get the supplies they need? Forget about federal leadership, there's still a whole state government with agencies and employees ready to act. This is the time to show the rest of the country how to do it properly.
- big_chungus 7y ago
  In a big enough depression, even "the one percent" might not produce enough to cover that sort of expense. Where else where you go? This has a global reach, so you can't really borrow from the next country over. Can't really sell bonds to Americans, because that reduces liquidity further. Inflate and you'll kill what savings Americans have left and risk stagflation. So, how do you pay for it? Forget taxing certain people more or less, past a certain point, the money simply doesn't exist; there's no bottomless pit of money on which the gov't can draw in a second great depression.
  - wbl 7y ago
    The food exists the houses exist.
  - scotty79 7y ago
    I think about 70% of economy just serves the boredom of people with disposable income. We have plenty of capacity to provide essentials for everybody.
- casefields 7y ago
  This is Mao-esqe nonsense. You can't turn off the economy the imagine government is going to divvy up whatever stuff needs dispersing. The Soviet Union tried that.
  - wbl 7y ago
    Remember the War?
    - inferiorhuman 7y ago
      Remember the massive inflation in the 70s? We survived.
  - mirimir 7y ago
    Yeah, but they had crappy information management.

hkmurakami 7y ago

Hence they're trying to hand out cash to people (means tested), reduce our delay taxes, etc. Other countries have enacted similar measures.

thereare5lights 7y ago
Unfortunately, most of the bills thus far are means tested which means inevitably, people will fall through the cracks.
JMTQp8lwXL 7y ago
$1000 for a month isn't quite enough to keep the lights on for middle class families living paycheck to paycheck.
- SauciestGNU 7y ago
  Hopefully in addition to monetary grants there will also be suspension of rent, mortgage, utility, and student loan repayments while this is ongoing.
  - joe-collins 7y ago
    Suspension of rents seems like one of the biggest things I see missing across the board. Suspended mortgages are great... for those wealthy enough not to be renting. $1k/adult will cover rent for many couples outside of tech hotspots, but it won't go a lot farther, and that doesn't begin to address singles.
    - ed312 7y ago
      A significant percent, (I want to say most, but I don't have the numbers), of rental properties are covered by mortgages or other financing. "Pausing" mortgages can be done in a fairly centralized manner. Pausing rent is almost impossible because everyone has an individual contract and there isn't a central clearing house. It's a hard problem.

codeisawesome 7y ago

That's downright frightening to imagine - much more even than the infection itself. For all of the zombie apocalypse movies, books & video games we have seen - our world & economy is just not prepared to operate like this..

ryanmccullagh 7y ago

Exactly. Programmers and other tech people can work remote all day. But what about truck drivers, service industry workers, hair dressers, and more? People like this Twitter [0] use seem to suggest a shut down wouldn't have any negative effects because they can work from home. [0] https://twitter.com/kvlly/status/1240819015095930880 https://twitter.com/kvlly/status/1240819015095930880

juliansimioni 7y ago
There's nothing in that tweet or the thread its a part of that suggests the authors don't understand the seriousness of asking for a shut down. It also doesn't suggest they wouldn't support exceptions for all the hardworking people who can't work remotely. So why link to it? Even if it wasn't your intention, it seems like the primary effect would be to direct abuse towards the author of the linked tweet.
- ryanmccullagh 7y ago
  Does it suggest they're aware of the consequences though? Not suggesting that they don't understand seriousness of asking for a shut down doesn't suggest that they do. The "seriousness" of a shut-down shouldn't be silenced.
  - juliansimioni 7y ago
    Sure, if you want to go around the internet complaining that people didn't explicitly say they were aware of something they didn't happen to mention, go for it. I think you'll find that unfulfilling. If you want to help remind people of the seriousness of a shutdown and how many people couldn't abide by one without society crumbling, then do that directly. Don't attack other people who probably don't even disagree with you to try to bolster your point.
usaar333 7y ago
A lot of those jobs are exempted as essential workers. Even residential housing construction workers are exempted.

twblalock 7y ago

The money they are proposing won't cover a single month of rent in California.

dredmorbius 7y ago
Rent and mortgage moratoria, and eviction bans, are also active initiatives. Several already imposed, more proposed, regionally andnationally.
- omar_a1 7y ago
  That's the silver lining here. With sheriffs and legislators not enforcing evictions, we can pretty much squat in our apartments until the situation changes if rent money completely dries up. The landlords are out-numbered by the tenants and can't reasonably expect to find another tenant while on lockdown. The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied.
  - UncleEntity 7y ago
    > The lessors won't take not receiving rent quietly, and will certainly pull every card to threaten tenants, but they're ultimately empty threats. The landlords' hands are tied. Or...they'll just resign themselves to "we're all in this together" and accept they will have to suffer a bit too.
    - omar_a1 7y ago
      I just can't imagine an SF landlord passively resigning themselves to not getting paid rent, apocalypse or not.
      - UncleEntity 7y ago
        Why not? I was just reading about Arizona evictions (for, umm, a friend) and it seems the courts are just not going to serve any notices for the foreseeable future so they can't really do anything about it no matter how they feel. Things will get sorted out, landlords will get a bailout, everyone will be happy.

fsh 7y ago

The worst ever depression is a gross exaggeration in any imaginable case. During the world wars, most of the earth essentially devoted all of its resources trying to kill each other for years. How is some people not going to work for a few months going to be nearly that bad?

xenospn 7y ago
People were getting paid to try and kill the other side.
- fsh 7y ago
  So how about paying them without the killing?
  - omgwtfbyobbq 7y ago
    Exactly. This is what unemployment is for.
- __s 7y ago
  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parable_of_the_broken_window

rcpt 7y ago

Workers aren't allowed to work but landlords are still allowed to collect rent.

root_axis 7y ago
Keep looking up stream. The landlords have to pay property taxes and often their own mortgages on personal or commercial properties. Anyone with a balloon mortgage is probably feeling very anxious about now. The rental market is big business and many thousands of rental communities around the country are operated by corporations capitalized through big bank creditors with the power to unmake poor performers; if prospects of collecting rent look grim investment capital will dry up and these companies will be facing bankruptcy. It's times like these when you really need a good leader that's empowered to act but also capable of seeing the big picture.