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Something interesting I heard tonight, that I hope someone will look into more, is that there were reports from Italian doctors way back in October / November t

Something interesting I heard tonight, that I hope someone will look into more, is that there were reports from Italian doctors way back in October / November timeframe of a "strange pneumonia affecting predominately the elderly". The implication was that coronavirus has been in widespread circulation for longer than people realize, which they theorized was part of why Italy has been unable to contain it. Normally I'd just dismiss that as rumor, but it was on NPR, and I feel like they normally at least try to filter out the complete nonsense.

creato 7y ago
I haven't heard that, but I have read (in a source I can't find at the moment) that the first known patient also had bacterial pneumonia and so was misdiagnosed for several days, during which time several healthcare workers became infected, who in turn infected who knows how many. I'm sure the rate of initial spread, when the number of transmission events is low, is very much subject to chance/luck.
MikeAmelung 7y ago
This has been part of my thinking for a while. A lot of people's models seem to be based on the idea that they know when the first actual infection arrived in a particular area. Given that a lot of people seem to have almost no symptoms at all, that doesn't seem very likely.
acqq 7y ago
Look at the graph from my parent message again -- that info that you cite (coronavirus being active in November) would completely not match what we already know. We know extremely good how fast it spreads and how fast people start to die: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_c... "On 20 January 2020, an 80-year-old passenger from Hong Kong, China, embarked in Yokohama, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. On 1 February, six days after leaving the ship, he visited a Hong Kong hospital, where he tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.[47][48]" "On 4 February, the authorities announced positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 for ten people on board, the cancellation of the cruise, and that the ship was entering quarantine." "Two passengers died on 20 February[78] and a third on 23 February, all three Japanese citizens in their 80s.[79] A fourth passenger, an elderly Japanese man, was reported on 25 February to have died.[80] The fifth fatality, a British national in his 70s, died on 28 February.[81] A 78-year-old Australian national, who was evacuated from the ship, died on 1 March in Australia, making him the sixth.[82] A Hong Kong national from the ship died on 6 March, making him the seventh coronavirus-related death from the ship.[83]" With the doubling time of 4 days, if the first case had been dying in November and nothing had been done to prevent the spread now there would be million of dead in Italy now.

creato 7y ago

I haven't heard that, but I have read (in a source I can't find at the moment) that the first known patient also had bacterial pneumonia and so was misdiagnosed for several days, during which time several healthcare workers became infected, who in turn infected who knows how many. I'm sure the rate of initial spread, when the number of transmission events is low, is very much subject to chance/luck.

MikeAmelung 7y ago

This has been part of my thinking for a while. A lot of people's models seem to be based on the idea that they know when the first actual infection arrived in a particular area. Given that a lot of people seem to have almost no symptoms at all, that doesn't seem very likely.

acqq 7y ago

Look at the graph from my parent message again -- that info that you cite (coronavirus being active in November) would completely not match what we already know. We know extremely good how fast it spreads and how fast people start to die: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_cruise_ships#Diamond_Princess https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_on_c... "On 20 January 2020, an 80-year-old passenger from Hong Kong, China, embarked in Yokohama, and disembarked in Hong Kong on 25 January. On 1 February, six days after leaving the ship, he visited a Hong Kong hospital, where he tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.[47][48]" "On 4 February, the authorities announced positive test results for SARS-CoV-2 for ten people on board, the cancellation of the cruise, and that the ship was entering quarantine." "Two passengers died on 20 February[78] and a third on 23 February, all three Japanese citizens in their 80s.[79] A fourth passenger, an elderly Japanese man, was reported on 25 February to have died.[80] The fifth fatality, a British national in his 70s, died on 28 February.[81] A 78-year-old Australian national, who was evacuated from the ship, died on 1 March in Australia, making him the sixth.[82] A Hong Kong national from the ship died on 6 March, making him the seventh coronavirus-related death from the ship.[83]" With the doubling time of 4 days, if the first case had been dying in November and nothing had been done to prevent the spread now there would be million of dead in Italy now.