Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of test

Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of tests hugely differ: US 37824 tests 11,604 cases 161 dead UK 56221 tests 3,269 cases 144 dead But in all countries the doubling time is also around every 3 days. It's very stable information and allows for easy estimates: 30 days of such doubling makes 10 of them, or the factor 2 ^ 10 = 1024 times more. Even if the doubling time (for new deaths) increases to 4 days (the number that can now be derived from Italy) the resulting factor in 30 days changes to 2 ^ 7.5 = 181 which still results in almost 30000 deaths in the next month in each of UK and US... as long as something very resolute isn't done to prevent the growth. But the problem isn't just the dead alone. It's that the number of those that need the hospital treatment is much higher than those that die, and that is when the hospitals aren't overloaded. These numbers are huge. See my other post here for just the number of needed intensive care beds -- those are especially hard to increase.