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Look at the statistics of each day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronaviru

by acqq 7y ago

Look at the statistics of each day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... In the UK the number of infected doubles every 3 days. The number of dead at the moment doubles every 2 days. Now starting from 3300 infected today, and 144 dead today, calculate the numbers in just one month. If you think that the growth won't continue if nothing is done, compare with the equivalent data from Italy: just 15 days ago, there were 2020-03-04 3089 infected 107 dead today: 2020-03-19 41035 infected 3405 dead and note that they even tried to do the lockdown first of the critical areas and later of the whole country.

hnburnsy 7y ago
Thanks, do you know the number tested in Italy?
- acqq 7y ago
  Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of tests hugely differ: US 37824 tests 11,604 cases 161 dead UK 56221 tests 3,269 cases 144 dead But in all countries the doubling time is also around every 3 days. It's very stable information and allows for easy estimates: 30 days of such doubling makes 10 of them, or the factor 2 ^ 10 = 1024 times more. Even if the doubling time (for new deaths) increases to 4 days (the number that can now be derived from Italy) the resulting factor in 30 days changes to 2 ^ 7.5 = 181 which still results in almost 30000 deaths in the next month in each of UK and US... as long as something very resolute isn't done to prevent the growth. But the problem isn't just the dead alone. It's that the number of those that need the hospital treatment is much higher than those that die, and that is when the hospitals aren't overloaded. These numbers are huge. See my other post here for just the number of needed intensive care beds -- those are especially hard to increase.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    How are we accounting for the number of deaths being almost the same with the US having almost 4 times as many cases?
    - acqq 7y ago
      The factor 4 is also not too important -- with the doubling time of 3 days, it's a difference of only 6 days in one or another direction -- any delays or speedups can easily add up to that. Only the speed of growth is stable and completely consistent information across many countries and what everybody has to worry to reduce.

by acqq 7y ago

hnburnsy 7y ago

Thanks, do you know the number tested in Italy?

acqq 7y ago
Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of tests hugely differ: US 37824 tests 11,604 cases 161 dead UK 56221 tests 3,269 cases 144 dead But in all countries the doubling time is also around every 3 days. It's very stable information and allows for easy estimates: 30 days of such doubling makes 10 of them, or the factor 2 ^ 10 = 1024 times more. Even if the doubling time (for new deaths) increases to 4 days (the number that can now be derived from Italy) the resulting factor in 30 days changes to 2 ^ 7.5 = 181 which still results in almost 30000 deaths in the next month in each of UK and US... as long as something very resolute isn't done to prevent the growth. But the problem isn't just the dead alone. It's that the number of those that need the hospital treatment is much higher than those that die, and that is when the hospitals aren't overloaded. These numbers are huge. See my other post here for just the number of needed intensive care beds -- those are especially hard to increase.
- MikeAmelung 7y ago
  How are we accounting for the number of deaths being almost the same with the US having almost 4 times as many cases?
  - acqq 7y ago
    The factor 4 is also not too important -- with the doubling time of 3 days, it's a difference of only 6 days in one or another direction -- any delays or speedups can easily add up to that. Only the speed of growth is stable and completely consistent information across many countries and what everybody has to worry to reduce.