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From the UK... 'As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,621 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,269 were confirmed positiv

From the UK... 'As of 9am on 19 March 2020, 64,621 people have been tested in the UK, of which 61,352 were confirmed negative and 3,269 were confirmed positive. As of 1pm 144 patients in the UK who tested positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) have died.' So that 5% positive and 0.2% death rate of those tested. Seems likely that they would only be testing the worst cases. When I see data like this but see estimates in the news of 1-2 million deaths in the US it makes me shake my head.

acqq 7y ago
Look at the statistics of each day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... In the UK the number of infected doubles every 3 days. The number of dead at the moment doubles every 2 days. Now starting from 3300 infected today, and 144 dead today, calculate the numbers in just one month. If you think that the growth won't continue if nothing is done, compare with the equivalent data from Italy: just 15 days ago, there were 2020-03-04 3089 infected 107 dead today: 2020-03-19 41035 infected 3405 dead and note that they even tried to do the lockdown first of the critical areas and later of the whole country.
- hnburnsy 7y ago
  Thanks, do you know the number tested in Italy?
  - acqq 7y ago
    Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of tests hugely differ: US 37824 tests 11,604 cases 161 dead UK 56221 tests 3,269 cases 144 dead But in all countries the doubling time is also around every 3 days. It's very stable information and allows for easy estimates: 30 days of such doubling makes 10 of them, or the factor 2 ^ 10 = 1024 times more. Even if the doubling time (for new deaths) increases to 4 days (the number that can now be derived from Italy) the resulting factor in 30 days changes to 2 ^ 7.5 = 181 which still results in almost 30000 deaths in the next month in each of UK and US... as long as something very resolute isn't done to prevent the growth. But the problem isn't just the dead alone. It's that the number of those that need the hospital treatment is much higher than those that die, and that is when the hospitals aren't overloaded. These numbers are huge. See my other post here for just the number of needed intensive care beds -- those are especially hard to increase.
    - MikeAmelung 7y ago
      How are we accounting for the number of deaths being almost the same with the US having almost 4 times as many cases?
      - acqq 7y ago
        The factor 4 is also not too important -- with the doubling time of 3 days, it's a difference of only 6 days in one or another direction -- any delays or speedups can easily add up to that. Only the speed of growth is stable and completely consistent information across many countries and what everybody has to worry to reduce.
greedo 7y ago
Your numbers are far off. The death rate (CFR) isn't based on the number of people tested, but of people infected. That's currently at 4.4% for the UK. The UK has roughly 68M citizens. If 5% get infected, that's 3.4m cases. Of those, (assuming the current CFR), 150K will die. Additionally, over 600K will require hospitalization for around 2 weeks. The NHS has been stripped of funding for decades, and is in no condition to handle that load.
- hnburnsy 7y ago
  Not my numbers, but why do you and I guess others think 5% will get infected when only 4.4% of the worst cases are testing positive? Wouldn't sampling the random population result in a significantly lower positive rate?
  - zzleeper 7y ago
    "worst cases are testing positive" ????? Most tests are on healthy people that were close to positive. If the R0 is as high as they say (2-4) then most people (60+%) will get it.
    - hnburnsy 7y ago
      Testing Criteria in UK... ---------------- 2.1 Patients who meet the following criteria (inpatient definition) requiring admission to hospital (a hospital practitioner has decided that admission to hospital is required with an expectation that the patient will need to stay at least one night) and have either clinical or radiological evidence of pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome or influenza like illness (fever ≥37.8°C and at least one of the following respiratory symptoms, which must be of acute onset: persistent cough (with or without sputum), hoarseness, nasal discharge or congestion, shortness of breath, sore throat, wheezing, sneezing https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#inp https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coron...

acqq 7y ago

Look at the statistics of each day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_Kingdom https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_t... In the UK the number of infected doubles every 3 days. The number of dead at the moment doubles every 2 days. Now starting from 3300 infected today, and 144 dead today, calculate the numbers in just one month. If you think that the growth won't continue if nothing is done, compare with the equivalent data from Italy: just 15 days ago, there were 2020-03-04 3089 infected 107 dead today: 2020-03-19 41035 infected 3405 dead and note that they even tried to do the lockdown first of the critical areas and later of the whole country.

hnburnsy 7y ago
Thanks, do you know the number tested in Italy?
- acqq 7y ago
  Like I've said, the number of tested is irrelevant for the estimate of the future, as the growth speed is stable across many countries, where the number of tests hugely differ: US 37824 tests 11,604 cases 161 dead UK 56221 tests 3,269 cases 144 dead But in all countries the doubling time is also around every 3 days. It's very stable information and allows for easy estimates: 30 days of such doubling makes 10 of them, or the factor 2 ^ 10 = 1024 times more. Even if the doubling time (for new deaths) increases to 4 days (the number that can now be derived from Italy) the resulting factor in 30 days changes to 2 ^ 7.5 = 181 which still results in almost 30000 deaths in the next month in each of UK and US... as long as something very resolute isn't done to prevent the growth. But the problem isn't just the dead alone. It's that the number of those that need the hospital treatment is much higher than those that die, and that is when the hospitals aren't overloaded. These numbers are huge. See my other post here for just the number of needed intensive care beds -- those are especially hard to increase.
  - MikeAmelung 7y ago
    How are we accounting for the number of deaths being almost the same with the US having almost 4 times as many cases?
    - acqq 7y ago
      The factor 4 is also not too important -- with the doubling time of 3 days, it's a difference of only 6 days in one or another direction -- any delays or speedups can easily add up to that. Only the speed of growth is stable and completely consistent information across many countries and what everybody has to worry to reduce.

greedo 7y ago

Your numbers are far off. The death rate (CFR) isn't based on the number of people tested, but of people infected. That's currently at 4.4% for the UK. The UK has roughly 68M citizens. If 5% get infected, that's 3.4m cases. Of those, (assuming the current CFR), 150K will die. Additionally, over 600K will require hospitalization for around 2 weeks. The NHS has been stripped of funding for decades, and is in no condition to handle that load.

hnburnsy 7y ago
Not my numbers, but why do you and I guess others think 5% will get infected when only 4.4% of the worst cases are testing positive? Wouldn't sampling the random population result in a significantly lower positive rate?
- zzleeper 7y ago
  "worst cases are testing positive" ????? Most tests are on healthy people that were close to positive. If the R0 is as high as they say (2-4) then most people (60+%) will get it.
  - hnburnsy 7y ago
    Testing Criteria in UK... ---------------- 2.1 Patients who meet the following criteria (inpatient definition) requiring admission to hospital (a hospital practitioner has decided that admission to hospital is required with an expectation that the patient will need to stay at least one night) and have either clinical or radiological evidence of pneumonia or acute respiratory distress syndrome or influenza like illness (fever ≥37.8°C and at least one of the following respiratory symptoms, which must be of acute onset: persistent cough (with or without sputum), hoarseness, nasal discharge or congestion, shortness of breath, sore throat, wheezing, sneezing https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#inp https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coron...