3 ms·

No, he doesn't. Derek has a favourable opinion of favipiravir and in the footnote he calls the French trial "messy". That's very polite, considering the shape o

No, he doesn't. Derek has a favourable opinion of favipiravir and in the footnote he calls the French trial "messy". That's very polite, considering the shape of the data.

hprotagonist 7y ago
yep. that’s better than i expected. check my post history if you like, i’m skeptical too.
paulmd 7y ago
Boy, "messy" data when performing initial experimental administration of a drug, during an outbreak with no officially approved treatment, with limited testing capacity.which is piling up bodies faster than mortuaries can cremate them. How shameful. People are nitpicking. Yes, "we need further studies", that's at the end of literally every research paper ever, but the longer you delay the more people die. It's no different than signing up for an experimental cancer drug. There are no alternatives that are known to work. You take the best shot with the possibility that looks promising right now. The alternative is dying without trying. It's kind of a weirdly US-centric position, both from science fetishism and the fact that we're the the country with the fewest deaths so far. Oh golly gee I guess we better wait 18 months for a double-blind clinical trial and FDA approval and a Nature article. Other countries have the bodies piling up and they are pushing ahead, because a chance is better than no chance. Just like with cancer.
- HarryHirsch 7y ago
  It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. You have to make sure that your proposed therapy works, else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. What is concerning that the Chinese didn't notice a great effect, else they would have told the rest of the world.
  - rurban 7y ago
    On the contrary the Chinese told the world very early how their successful treatment plan worked. * https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/standards-of-care-for-serious-and-critical-novel-coronavirus-pneumonia-patients/ https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/standards-of-care-for-s... * Or https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fd15kg/preprint_article_from_the_shanghai_medical/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fd15kg/preprin... South Korea and Japan used the very same plan in their ICU's. Maybe it's the crackdown of Western media on China, but right now italian doctors trust chinese experience more than western experts. Western experts still preach lockdown, whilst Italian officials in the meantime also found out that the asian recommendation of mass testing everybody is better. Without drastic lockdowns. Test everybody, wear masks, be responsible. > else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. The problem is that it was chinese and south korean data only. Trials are not cut short, western buerocracy still rule the hospitals. Many doctors do get their younger patients on those trials. But in the overloaded case, such as Italy and Spain it's too late. You need to apply virostatica early on for 10 days, not when it's too late. But those people are advised to stay at home and wait for the fever to go down. Without effective treatment plan, as outlined by the chinese.
  - paulmd 7y ago
    > It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. No, it's that you couldn't guarantee that every patient could be tested every day in order to measure whether the drug is effective. That is what people are complaining about, and it won't be fixed until testing capacity is reliably there. Bigger trials would only make that worse.

No, he doesn't. Derek has a favourable opinion of favipiravir and in the footnote he calls the French trial "messy". That's very polite, considering the shape of the data.

hprotagonist 7y ago

yep. that’s better than i expected. check my post history if you like, i’m skeptical too.

paulmd 7y ago

Boy, "messy" data when performing initial experimental administration of a drug, during an outbreak with no officially approved treatment, with limited testing capacity.which is piling up bodies faster than mortuaries can cremate them. How shameful. People are nitpicking. Yes, "we need further studies", that's at the end of literally every research paper ever, but the longer you delay the more people die. It's no different than signing up for an experimental cancer drug. There are no alternatives that are known to work. You take the best shot with the possibility that looks promising right now. The alternative is dying without trying. It's kind of a weirdly US-centric position, both from science fetishism and the fact that we're the the country with the fewest deaths so far. Oh golly gee I guess we better wait 18 months for a double-blind clinical trial and FDA approval and a Nature article. Other countries have the bodies piling up and they are pushing ahead, because a chance is better than no chance. Just like with cancer.

HarryHirsch 7y ago
It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. You have to make sure that your proposed therapy works, else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. What is concerning that the Chinese didn't notice a great effect, else they would have told the rest of the world.
- rurban 7y ago
  On the contrary the Chinese told the world very early how their successful treatment plan worked. * https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/standards-of-care-for-serious-and-critical-novel-coronavirus-pneumonia-patients/ https://www.chinalawtranslate.com/en/standards-of-care-for-s... * Or https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fd15kg/preprint_article_from_the_shanghai_medical/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fd15kg/preprin... South Korea and Japan used the very same plan in their ICU's. Maybe it's the crackdown of Western media on China, but right now italian doctors trust chinese experience more than western experts. Western experts still preach lockdown, whilst Italian officials in the meantime also found out that the asian recommendation of mass testing everybody is better. Without drastic lockdowns. Test everybody, wear masks, be responsible. > else you waste money and lives. If your wonder drug is so great you'd notice immediately in the data and would cut the trial short. The problem is that it was chinese and south korean data only. Trials are not cut short, western buerocracy still rule the hospitals. Many doctors do get their younger patients on those trials. But in the overloaded case, such as Italy and Spain it's too late. You need to apply virostatica early on for 10 days, not when it's too late. But those people are advised to stay at home and wait for the fever to go down. Without effective treatment plan, as outlined by the chinese.
- paulmd 7y ago
  > It's not that you didn't have a supply of patients for clinical trials. No, it's that you couldn't guarantee that every patient could be tested every day in order to measure whether the drug is effective. That is what people are complaining about, and it won't be fixed until testing capacity is reliably there. Bigger trials would only make that worse.