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It would be really nice if the uncertainty of fatality and severity information we have right now could be incorporated and visualized. Current reports by the C
by jupp0r 7y ago
It would be really nice if the uncertainty of fatality and severity information we have right now could be incorporated and visualized. Current reports by the CDC and info from France and Spain suggests that the age distribution of severe/critical cases might look very different than data from China made us believe. On the other hand, we don't know enough about the prevalence of asymptomatic cases, which have huge impacts on spread and severity, potentially.
It would be really nice to model the probability distributions for each of these and see the resulting probabilities of simulation outcomes.
- jansan 7y agoAlso, the huge uncertainty regarding the ratio of symptomless/unreported cases should be visualized. Guesses are in the range from 30 to 90%.
- Lukas1994 7y agoI'm working on a tool that lets you work with uncertainty very easily. The model I came up with is very trivial compared to Nicholas' though: https://my.causal.app/models/1432 https://my.causal.app/models/1432 Would be awesome if someone could build a more legit model in Causal - happy to help :)